. 2020 Oct 16;86(2):e28–e42. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002535

TABLE 3.

Short-Term and Long-Term Scenarios Investigated

Scenario		Increased HIV Testing Among FSW^*	PrEP Among FSW		ART Among FSW		Median Coverage Across 111 Fits (%)
Scenario		Increased HIV Testing Among FSW^*	Initiation rate^†	Adherence	Eligibility Criteria (from 2015)	TasP Initiation & Dropout rates^†		2017	2035
C0	Counterfactual (no PrEP or TasP)	—	—	—	CD4 < 500	—	PrEP	0%	0%
C0	Counterfactual (no PrEP or TasP)	—	—	—	CD4 < 500	—	ART	49%	52%
PrEP/TasP study scenarios (2015–2017)^‡
A1	Observed PrEP/TasP study	As observed	As observed	As observed (Table 1E)	Any CD4 (until 2017)^§	As observed	PrEP	9%	0%
A1	Observed PrEP/TasP study	As observed	As observed	As observed (Table 1E)	Any CD4 (until 2017)^§	As observed	ART	83%	53%
A2	PrEP study arm alone	As observed	As observed	As observed	CD4 < 500	—	PrEP	9%	0%
A2	PrEP study arm alone	As observed	As observed	As observed	CD4 < 500	—	ART	As counterfactual
A3	TasP study arm alone	As observed	—	—	Any CD4 (until 2017)^§	As observed	PrEP	As counterfactual
A3	TasP study arm alone	As observed	—	—	Any CD4 (until 2017)^§	As observed	ART	83%	53%
Long-term 20-year interventions scenarios (2015–2035)
Long-term PrEP alone¶
B1	PrEP extension^║	As observed	As observed	i) As observed ii) perfect	CD4 < 500	—	PrEP	24%^†	20%
B1	PrEP extension^║	As observed	As observed	i) As observed ii) perfect	CD4 < 500	—	ART	As counterfactual
B2	PrEP scale-up^║	As observed	2× higher than observed; allow re-initiations	i) As observed ii) perfect	CD4 < 500	—	PrEP	37%	47%
B2	PrEP scale-up^║	As observed	2× higher than observed; allow re-initiations	i) As observed ii) perfect	CD4 < 500	—	ART	As counterfactual
Long-term TasP alone
B3	TasP extension	As observed	—	—	Any CD4	As observed	PrEP	As counterfactual
B3	TasP extension	As observed	—	—	Any CD4	As observed	ART	83%	81%
B4	TasP scale-up	As observed	—	—	Any CD4	Initiation 2× higher and dropout 4× lower than observed	PrEP	As counterfactual
B4	TasP scale-up	As observed	—	—	Any CD4	Initiation 2× higher and dropout 4× lower than observed	ART	89%	88%
Long-term PrEP and TasP combined¶
B5	PrEP extension^║ + TasP scale-up	As observed	As observed	i) As observed ii) perfect	Any CD4	Initiation 2× higher and dropout 4× lower than observed	PrEP	As B1
B5	PrEP extension^║ + TasP scale-up	As observed	As observed	i) As observed ii) perfect	Any CD4	Initiation 2× higher and dropout 4× lower than observed	ART	As B4
B6	PrEP scale-up^║ + TasP scale-up	As observed	2x higher than observed; allow re-initiations	i) As observed ii) perfect	Any CD4	Initiation 2× higher and dropout 4× lower than observed	PrEP	As B2
B6	PrEP scale-up^║ + TasP scale-up	As observed	2x higher than observed; allow re-initiations	i) As observed ii) perfect	Any CD4	Initiation 2× higher and dropout 4× lower than observed	ART	As B5

A) the 2-year PrEP/TasP study and (B) various extended and scaled up 20-year PrEP and TasP interventions.

PrEP dropout rate kept constant at rate observed in study. Prior ranges for all parameters are given in Section 4, Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/QAI/B549.

Increased testing among pFSW applied over the duration of the intervention (PrEP/TasP study scenarios: 2015–2017; long-term scenarios: 2015–2035).

^†

PrEP and TasP initiation rates among HIV− and HIV+ pFSW (PrEP/TasP study scenarios as observed: 2015–2016; long-term scenarios: 2015–2035).

^‡

PrEP and TasP were available between 2015 and 2017, and impact measured both over 2 years (2015–2017) and over 20 years (2015–2035).

^§

Eligibility returns to CD4<500 in 2017.

^║

All 20-year scenarios involving PrEP are simulated twice: either assuming adherence as observed or assuming all FSW adhere perfectly.

¶Note long-term PrEP initiation rate assumed constant from 2015 onward (c.f. in the study where initiation only lasted 1 yr: 2015–2016).