Fig. 3. Effects of the implemented interventions in Bahia.

Effects on the number of (a) cases, (b) deaths, (c) clinical hospitalization, and (d) ICU bed requirements at the state level. The horizontal red dashed lines are, respectively, the current capacity for beds for clinical hospitalization (466 beds) and ICUs (422 beds). The blue dashed and full lines represent the evolution of the epidemic with a fixed transmission rate β₀ and with both β₀ and β₁, respectively. The shaded error bands represent 95% confidence intervals of the mean calculated using the weighted non-parametric bootstrap method. Residual analysis to visualize a tendency between the data and simulations are presented in Supplementary Fig. 7. The assumed parameter values are shown in Supplementary Table 3. Raw data from March 6 to May 4, 2020 are shown in this graph.