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. 2021 Jan 12;12:311. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — A Estimation of symptom onsets (blue) and infections (orange) from observed confirmed case counts (gray bars) using Guangdong province as an example. Horizontal axis shows time given as calendar days. Confirmed cases were shifted back by 7 days (the mean confirmation delay) to estimate symptom onset incidence, then further by 5 days (the median incubation period) to estimate infection incidence of those cases. B Conversion of province-level infection incidence to city-level pre-symptomatic prevalence in Guangzhou (capital city of Guangdong province). Each infected individual (orange) was assumed to contribute towards pre-symptomatic prevalence (green) for 5 days (the median incubation period). Incidence and prevalence are shown per-capita and before adjusting for within-China differences in ascertainment rates. C and D Prevalence indicator (green area) for Wuhan and averaged for non-Wuhan cities (note ~300-fold smaller values on the y-axis in D). For curves of this indicator, only relative comparisons are meaningful, and are thus scaled relative to the maximum value in Wuhan. Vertical dashed line shows 23 January 2020, the date of lockdown in Wuhan.