Figure 4. Observed and predicted relative auditory weights for continuous sequences of visual noise.
Relative auditory weights wA of the 1st (solid) and the flipped 2nd half (dashed) of a period (binned into 20 bins) plotted as a function of the normalized time in the sinusoidal (red), the RW1 (blue) and the RW2 (green) sequences. Relative auditory weights were computed from auditory localization responses of human observers (A), Bayesian (B), exponential (C), or instantaneous (D) learning models. For comparison, the standard deviation of the visual signal is shown in (E). Please note that all models were fitted to observers’ auditory localization responses (i.e. not the auditory weight wA). (F) Bayesian model comparison – Random effects analysis: The matrix shows the protected exceedance probability (color coded and indicated by the numbers) for pairwise comparisons of the Instantaneous (Inst), Bayesian (Bayes) and Exponential (Exp) learners separately for each of the four experiments. Across all experiments we observed that the Bayesian or the Exponential learner outperformed the Instantaneous learner (i.e. a protected exceedance probability >0.94) indicating that observers used the past to estimate sensory uncertainty. However, it was not possible to arbitrate reliably between the Exponential and the Bayesian learner across all experiments (protected exceedance probability in bottom row).