Table 2.
Coefficient and error values for forecasted infected cases using the ARIMA model.
| (a) Coefficient and error values of confirmed cases using the ARIMA model | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coef | std err | z | p>|z| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
| ar.L1 | 0.9715 | 0.032 | 30.236 | 0 | 0.908 | 1.034 |
| ma.L1 | −0.0876 | 0.159 | −0.552 | 0.581 | −0.398 | 0.233 |
| ar.S.L12 | −0.5586 | 0.114 | −4.892 | 0 | −0.782 | −0.335 |
| sigma2 | 7.60E + 06 | 2.08E-10 | 3.65E + 17 | 0 | 7.60E + 07 | 7.60E + 07 |
| (b) Coefficient and error values of death cases using the ARIMA model | ||||||
| Coef | std err | z | p>|z| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
| ar.L1 | 0.9214 | 0.036 | 25.694 | 0 | 0.851 | 0.992 |
| ma.L1 | 0.0569 | 0.081 | 0.699 | 0.484 | −0.103 | 0.216 |
| ar.S.L12 | −0.6301 | 0.105 | −6.001 | 0 | −0.836 | −0.424 |
| sigma2 | 9.02E + 07 | 9.67E + 04 | 9.333 | 0 | 7.13E + 05 | 1.09E + 06 |
| (c) Coefficient and error values of recovered cases using the ARIMA model | ||||||
| Coef | std err | z | p>|z| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
| ar.L1 | 0.9992 | 0.016 | 64.128 | 0 | 0.969 | 1.03 |
| ma.L1 | −0.7541 | 0.094 | −7.991 | 0 | −0.939 | −0.569 |
| ar.S.L12 | −0.7164 | 0.173 | −4.148 | 0 | −1.055 | −0.378 |
| sigma2 | 5.23E + 07 | 2.87E-09 | 1.82E + 16 | 0 | 5.23E + 07 | 5.23E + 07 |