Table 1.
R0 and Rt estimates for provinces in Ecuador.
| Province | R0 EG (95%CI) | R0 MLE (95%CI) | Max Rt proposed model (95%HDI) | Max Rt Bettencourt model (95%HDI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azuay | 1.08 (1.04–1.12) | 1.18 (1.05–1.33) | 2.62 (0–5.81) | 5.71 (3.24–7.63) |
| Bolivar | 1.02 (0.94–1.10) | 1.2 (0.95–1.49) | 1.76 (0.31–3.04) | 2.75 (1.2–4.01) |
| Cañar | 2.36 (2.03–2.74) | 2.25 (1.82–2.75) | 2.84 (0.95–4.45) | 4.05 (2.58–5.42) |
| Carchi | 1.36 (1.16–1.57) | 1.6 (1.1–2.25) | 2.15 (0.44–3.75) | 2.24 (0.24–3.91) |
| Chimborazo | 2.16 (1.44–3.1) | 2.45 (1.59–3.56) | 2.62 (0–5.81) | 2.88 (0.17–4.99) |
| Cotopaxi | 1.26 (1.1–1.44) | 1.49 (1.1–1.96) | 1.89 (0.02–3.41) | 2.52 (0.68–4.21) |
| El Oro | 3.16 (2.61–3.82) | 3.14 (2.5–3.89) | 2.01 (0–3.95) | 2.67 (1.93–3.36) |
| Esmeraldas | 3.5 (2.44–4.94) | 3.45 (2.28–4.97) | 3.77 (0–7.43) | 3.87 (2.6–4.97) |
| Galapagos | 2.12 (1.72–2.63) | 2.95 (1.93–4.27) | 2.81 (1.01–4.34) | 5.12 (3.85–6.25) |
| Guayas | 3.66 (3.55–3.77) | 3.08 (2.94–3.22) | 3.96 (3.11–4.76) | 4.91 (4.4–5.39) |
| Imbabura | 1.27 (1.12–1.44) | 1.39 (1.02–1.85) | 1.89 (0–4.49) | 2.62 (0–4.94) |
| Loja | 1.81 (1.55–2.11) | 1.9 (1.49–2.37) | 1.67 (0.4–2.83) | 5.39 (0.55–8.7) |
| Los Rios | 1.28 (1.24–1.33) | 1.2 (1.09–1.32) | 2.35 (0.61–3.88) | 2.36 (1.08–3.43) |
| Manabí | 1.33 (1.27–1.4) | 1.43 (1.28–1.6) | 3.77 (0–7.44) | 3.77 (0.87–6.22) |
| Morona Santiago | 1.57 (1.21–1.99) | 1.84 (1.13–2.8) | 2.15 (0–4.96) | 3.77 (0–7.45) |
| Napo | 1.86 (1.43–2.42) | 1.93 (1.09–3.13) | 1.89 (0–3.43) | 1.95 (0.22–3.46) |
| Orellana | 2.08 (1.63–2.68) | 2.25 (1.34–3.5) | 2.01 (0–3.96) | 2.62 (0–5.76) |
| Pastaza | 1.64 (1.34–2.01) | 2.08 (1.37–2.99) | 2.01 (0.12–3.48) | 3.04 (1.14–4.64) |
| Pichincha | 1.26 (1.23–1.29) | 1.32 (1.23–1.4) | 2.83 (1.27–4.14) | 3.04 (1.75–4.08) |
| Santa Elena | 1.44 (1.3–1.59) | 1.53 (1.31–1.78) | 2.43 (0.97–3.84) | 3.77 (2.33–5.05) |
| Santo Domingo | 1.5 (1.38–1.63) | 1.64 (1.37–1.94) | 1.6 (0.75–2.32) | 2.23 (1.22–3.18) |
| Sucumbíos | 3.44 (2.19–5.62) | 3.29 (1.5–6.13) | 2.15 (0–5.02) | 3.77 (0.48–6.3) |
| Tungurahua | 1.46 (1.26–1.67) | 1.61 (1.23–2.07) | 2.15 (0.11–3.92) | 2.62 (0.7–4.26) |
| Zamora Chinchipe | 3.95 (2.29–6.92) | 4.91 (2.11–9.49) | 3.04 (0.35–5.03) | 7.16 (4.89–9.1) |
MLE: Maximum likelihood estimation; EG: Exponential growth; Max: Maximum, CI: confidence interval; HDI: High density interval.