Fig. 4.

Estimating the reproduction number from the observed serial intervals. (A) Schematic representation of line list data collected during an epidemic. (B) Estimates of ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ based on all observed serial intervals completed by a given time. (C) Schematic representation of line list data rearranged by symptom onset date of infectors. (D) Estimates of ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ based on all observed serial intervals started by a given time. Black dashed lines represent the mean initial forward serial interval and ${\mathcal{R}}_0$. Black solid lines represent the mean intrinsic serial interval and ${\mathcal{R}}_{\mathrm{\text{intrinsic}}}$. Colored solid lines represent the mean estimates of ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ across 10 stochastic simulations. Colored ribbons represent the range of estimates of ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ across 10 stochastic simulations.