Table 1.

Parameter values used for simulations

Parameter	Values	Source
Mean intrinsic incubation period	5.5 d	(33)
SD intrinsic incubation period	2.4 d	(33)
Mean intrinsic generation interval	5.0 d	(34)
SD intrinsic generation interval	1.9 d	(34)

The intrinsic incubation period distribution is parameterized using a lognormal distribution with log mean ${\mu }_I=1.62$ and log standard deviation ${\sigma }_I=0.42$. The intrinsic generation interval distribution is parameterized using a log-normal distribution with log mean ${\mu }_G=1.54$ and log standard deviation ${\sigma }_G=0.37$. Log mean and log standard deviations represent the mean and standard deviations of the underlying normal distributions, which are later exponentiated. The joint probability distribution is modeled using a bivariate log-normal distribution with correlations (on the log scale) $\rho =\left\{\mathrm{0,0.25},0.5,0.75\right\}$. The intrinsic incubation period and generation interval distributions are chosen to match characteristics of COVID-19 to illustrate realistic magnitudes of time-varying/perspective effects in the current pandemic.