In this figure, we plot the cumulative number of reported cases (a) and the daily number of reported cases (b). The black curves are obtained by applying the cubic spline Matlab function ‘spline(Days,DATA)’ to the cumulative data. The left-hand side is obtained by using the cubic spline function and right-hand side is obtained by using the derivative of the cubic spline interpolation. The blue curves are obtained by using cubic spline function to the day-by-day values of cumulative number of cases obtained from the best fit of the Bernoulli–Verhulst model. The orange curves are obtained by computing the rolling weekly daily number of cases (we use the Matlab function ‘smoothdata(DAILY,‘movmean’,7)’) and then by applying the cubic spline function to the corresponding cumulative number of cases. The yellow curves are obtained by using the Gaussian weekly smoothing to the daily number of cases (we use the Matlab function ‘smoothdata(DAILY,‘gaussian’,7)’) and then by applying the cubic spline function to the corresponding cumulative number of cases.