Figure 2.

In this figure, the black curve corresponds to the cumulative number of reported cases CR(t) obtained from the model (2.6) with CR′(t) = νf I(t) by using the values I₀ = 1521 and τ₀ = 3.32 × 10⁻¹⁰ obtained from our method and the early data from 19 February to 1 March. The blue region corresponds to the $95\text{\%}$ confidence interval when the rate of transmission τ(t) is constant and equal to the estimated value τ₀ = 3.32 × 10⁻¹⁰.