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. 2021 Jan 18;11:1661. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-81308-2

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Analytical estimate of the total number of COVID-19 deaths ${\tilde{D}}_{tot}$ versus $D_{tot}$ , the actual total death toll (a). (b) The same data are presented as per million (1M) population. The dashed and solid lines represent the identity and a linear regression, respectively. The slope of the linear regression is $0.85 \pm 0.01$ (a) and $0.84 \pm 0.02$ (b). Pearson coefficients of determination are (a) $r^{2} = 0.99$ $(p < 0.001)$ and (b) $r^{2} = 0.98$ $(p < 0.001)$ . Statistical data analysis was performed using MATLAB (version 2017b, The MathWorks, Inc.).