Table 1.

Key parameters of the daily COVID-19 death toll and social distancing.

Country	${\mathit{R}}_{0_1}$	${\mathit{R}}_{0_2}$	${\mathit{t}}_{\text{c}}$	${\mathit{t}}_{\text{eff}}$	${\mathit{t}}_{\text{c}}-{\mathit{t}}_{\text{NL}}$	${\mathit{t}}_{\text{c}}-{\mathit{t}}_{\text{eff}}$	$\mathit{\mu }$
Italy (ITA)	$3.52\pm 0.08$	$0.68\pm 0.01$	$19.07\pm 1.10$	0.004	10.07	19.07	0.12
Spain (ESP)	$3.54\pm 0.06$	$0.54\pm 0.03$	$19.03\pm 1.14$	0.38	16.03	18.65	0.09
France (FRA)	$3.22\pm 0.06$	$0.42\pm 0.01$	$24.66\pm 1.16$	1.47	19.66	23.19	0.16
Great Britain (GBR)	$3.24\pm 0.06$	$0.70\pm 0.01$	$22.60\pm 1.22$	−0.2	15.60	23.42	0.32
Germany (GER)	$3.00\pm 0.06$	$0.54\pm 0.01$	$20.32\pm 1.11$	−7.33	17.32	27.65	0.41
Belgium (BEL)	$3.04\pm 0.06$	$0.44\pm 0.01$	$19.17\pm 1.01$	−10.09	24.17	29.26	0.31
Netherlands (NLD)	$3.16\pm 0.04$	$0.48\pm 0.01$	$17.77\pm 0.77$	−6.59	12.77	24.36	0.35
Switzerland (SWL)	$2.88\pm 0.10$	$0.36\pm 0.02$	$16.32\pm 1.45$	−9.26	24.32	25.58	0.41
Sweden (SWE)	$2.40\pm 0.06$	$0.82\pm 0.01$	$17.23\pm 1.69$	−16.53	–	33.76	0.63

Parameter values correspond to mean ± SE; see also Supplementary Tables 1–3.