Table 2.
Summary of model-projected impact of a post-exposure, M72-like vaccine on RR-TB burden.
| Country/Region | M72-like vaccine | M72-like vaccine and improved RR-TB management | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Averted RR-TB cases | Averted RR-TB deaths | Averted RR-TB cases | Averted RR-TB deaths | |||||
| Number, thousands | Proportion, % | Number, thousands | Proportion, % | Number, thousands | Proportion, % | Number, thousands | Proportion, % | |
| India | 201(116, 428) | 11(9.6, 12) | 47(26, 99) | 7.3(5.8, 9.1) | 263(141, 591) | 14(11, 18) | 232(132, 453) | 36(33, 39) |
| Indonesia | 41(29, 63) | 12(11, 13) | 8.1(5.9, 12) | 8.1(7.2, 8.9) | 56(38, 93) | 16(13, 22) | 42(30, 61) | 41(39, 44) |
| Myanmar | 13(7.5, 21) | 9.5(7.7, 11) | 2.6(1.5, 4.5) | 7.5(5.9, 9.0) | 13(7.5, 21) | 9.5(7.7, 11) | 2.6(1.5, 4.5) | 7.5(5.9, 9.0) |
| Bangladesh | 9.8(4.8, 18) | 11(10, 12) | 1.4(0.67, 2.6) | 8.4(7.1, 9.2) | 11(5.4, 21) | 13(11, 17) | 2.1(0.97, 4.4) | 13(10, 16) |
| DPR Korea | 9.1(3.9, 31) | 14(11, 18) | 1.0(0.40, 3.7) | 10(8.2, 14) | 16(4.6, 66) | 23(12, 39) | 2.6(0.72, 10) | 25(14, 39) |
| Thailand | 5.2(1.9, 9.2) | 10(8.5, 11) | 1.1(0.40, 1.9) | 7.8(6.4, 8.7) | 6.8(2.0, 15) | 13(9.3, 18) | 3.7(1.4, 6.9) | 26(23, 30) |
| South-East Asia Region | 286(197, 525) | 11(10, 12) | 62(42, 116) | 7.5(6.3, 8.8) | 375(251, 712) | 14(12, 17) | 286(190, 513) | 35(32, 37) |
| China | 86(55, 133) | 9.7(8.8, 12) | 8.2(5.3, 12) | 7.2(6.6, 9.0) | 113(62, 274) | 13(9.9, 24) | 39(25, 58) | 34(32, 41) |
| Philippines | 18(8.6, 36) | 11(8.4, 12) | 2.0(0.97, 4.1) | 6.4(5.1, 8.0) | 25(12, 62) | 15(10, 23) | 11(6.6, 23) | 39(36, 41) |
| Viet Nam | 18(7.0, 43) | 13(9.8, 17) | 2.2(0.88, 5.6) | 10(6.8, 13) | 18(7.2, 45) | 14(10, 18) | 4.5(2.1, 9.7) | 20(16, 23) |
| Papua New Guinea | 6.8(2.9, 16) | 15(12, 19) | 0.98(0.41, 2.3) | 12(8.8, 16) | 15(5.6, 40) | 33(25, 47) | 2.2(0.82, 5.8) | 27(19, 40) |
| West Pacific Region | 134(89, 186) | 11(9.6, 12) | 14(9.6, 19) | 7.8(7.0, 9.3) | 181(113, 338) | 14(11, 23) | 60(41, 81) | 33(31, 38) |
| Russian Federation | 40(30, 53) | 9.4(8.9, 9.8) | 7.8(5.9, 10) | 7.3(6.9, 7.7) | 41(31, 55) | 9.5(8.8, 11) | 40(30, 52) | 37(35, 38) |
| Ukraine | 14(9.2, 20) | 9.5(9.0, 9.9) | 3.0(2.1, 4.2) | 7.3(6.7, 7.6) | 15(10, 21) | 10(9.2, 12) | 20(13, 27) | 48(45, 49) |
| Kazakhstan | 5.8(3.5, 8.7) | 11(9.9, 13) | 0.55(0.34, 0.87) | 8.8(7.9, 10) | 5.8(3.5, 8.7) | 11(9.9, 13) | 0.55(0.34, 0.87) | 8.8(7.9, 10) |
| Uzbekistan | 5.1(3.1, 7.6) | 9.5(8.4, 11) | 0.94(0.61, 1.4) | 7.4(6.3, 8.6) | 5.3(3.4, 7.9) | 10(8.7, 12) | 4.2(2.9, 6.2) | 33(30, 35) |
| Kyrgyzstan | 4.2(3.1, 5.5) | 12(11, 13) | 0.61(0.46, 0.79) | 9.4(8.8, 9.8) | 5.3(3.7, 6.9) | 15(11, 17) | 3.2(2.5, 4.2) | 50(49, 51) |
| Tajikistan | 4.7(2.4, 9.1) | 16(13, 18) | 0.78(0.41, 1.5) | 12(9.2, 13) | 4.8(2.3, 9.2) | 16(13, 18) | 2.2(1.3, 3.7) | 31(29, 33) |
| Belarus | 2.2(1.3, 3.4) | 11(9.5, 12) | 0.24(0.16, 0.36) | 8.3(7.3, 9.8) | 2.3(1.4, 3.6) | 11(9.7, 13) | 0.68(0.43, 1.0) | 23(21, 26) |
| Republic of Moldova | 1.8(1.3, 2.3) | 10(9.5, 11) | 0.30(0.22, 0.39) | 7.8(7.3, 8.4) | 1.8(1.3, 2.5) | 10(9.3, 12) | 1.8(1.4, 2.3) | 47(46, 48) |
| Azerbaijan | 1.7(1.1, 2.8) | 10(9.2, 13) | 0.30(0.19, 0.47) | 7.7(6.7, 9.9) | 1.8(1.1, 3.3) | 11(9.1, 15) | 1.3(0.90, 2.0) | 36(32, 38) |
| European Region | 81(68, 92) | 10(9.6, 10) | 15(12, 17) | 7.6(7.3, 7.9) | 84(72, 96) | 10(9.9, 11) | 74(61, 86) | 38(37, 39) |
| Pakistan | 36(22, 60) | 9.4(8.5, 10) | 6.2(4.0, 10) | 6.3(5.4, 7.0) | 53(31, 93) | 14(11, 17) | 24(15, 39) | 24(22, 25) |
| Somalia | 11(3.0, 29) | 9.6(7.1, 13) | 2.1(0.60, 5.9) | 7.7(5.2, 11) | 11(3.1, 29) | 10(7.3, 13) | 2.2(0.63, 6.1) | 8.2(5.4, 11) |
| Eastern Mediterranean Region | 47(30, 79) | 9.5(8.4, 11) | 8.5(5.5, 14) | 6.7(5.6, 7.7) | 66(42, 108) | 13(11, 15) | 26(17, 42) | 21(17, 23) |
| Nigeria | 29(14, 55) | 8.5(6.7, 10) | 8.3(4, 17) | 7.1(5.5, 8.4) | 33(16, 65) | 10(7.9, 11) | 10(4.9, 21) | 8.8(7.0, 10) |
| South Africa | 10(6.0, 19) | 8.3(7.5, 9.2) | 2.9(1.6, 5.7) | 6.7(5.5, 7.8) | 10(5.9, 21) | 8.6(7.3, 11) | 14(8.2, 23) | 31(27, 33) |
| Mozambique | 8.5(4.5, 16) | 5.2(3.5, 6.6) | 3.2(1.6, 5.9) | 5.2(3.7, 6.3) | 27(9.8, 100) | 16(10, 33) | 15(6.2, 42) | 24(16, 38) |
| DR Congo | 6.1(3.1, 13) | 7.5(6.1, 9.3) | 0.81(0.40, 2.2) | 5.6(4.5, 7.1) | 8.5(3.9, 25) | 11(7.6, 16) | 1.7(0.68, 5.9) | 12(9.0, 17) |
| Angola | 2.9(1.1, 9.5) | 7.7(5.3, 9.9) | 0.31(0.09, 1.6) | 6.1(3.9, 7.7) | 6.7(2.0, 33) | 19(10, 29) | 1.7(0.70, 7.8) | 35(29, 40) |
| Kenya | 2.1(1.1, 4.4) | 8.0(6.2, 9.9) | 0.46(0.22, 1.2) | 6.3(4.6, 7.9) | 2.2(1.1, 5.0) | 8.3(6.2, 11) | 0.90(0.46, 2.0) | 12(11, 13) |
| Ethiopia | 3.0(1.8, 5.0) | 10(8.7, 11) | 0.39(0.21, 0.69) | 7.6(6.2, 8.5) | 3.0(1.8, 5.0) | 10(8.7, 11) | 0.40(0.22, 0.71) | 7.7(6.3, 8.7) |
| Zimbabwe | 1.9(1.2, 3.0) | 9.8(8.8, 11) | 0.61(0.38, 0.94) | 7.9(7.1, 8.8) | 1.8(1.1, 2.8) | 9.3(8.3, 10) | 2.6(1.7, 3.7) | 33(31, 35) |
| African Region | 66(47, 97) | 7.7(6.5, 8.8) | 18(12, 28) | 6.5(5.6, 7.4) | 101(66, 170) | 12(9.8, 17) | 48(33, 78) | 18(14, 24) |
| Peru/Region of America | 5.0(3.3, 8.2) | 12(11, 14) | 0.45(0.31, 0.75) | 9.0(8.3, 11) | 7.8(4.7, 13) | 18(15, 24) | 2.0(1.3, 3.0) | 39(36, 43) |
| Total | 620(516, 867) | 10(9.7, 11) | 119(96, 174) | 7.3(6.6, 8.1) | 831(643, 1170) | 14(12, 16) | 499(391, 729) | 31(29, 33) |
Estimates show median and (in brackets) 95% Bayesian credible intervals, both estimated from n = 200 posterior samples, all relative to a ‘status quo’ scenario. Estimates at regional level and global level are in bold. We show averted RR-TB cases and deaths by an M72-like vaccine alone and in combination with improved RR-TB management. The vaccine is assumed to reduce the risk of reactivation by 50%, and to be deployed amongst adults and adolescents with latent TB infection in the population.
RR-TB rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis.