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. 2021 Jan 18;12:418. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20687-y

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — a Design of experiment results showing the influence of social distancing (SD) strategy (red color indicates constant (Ct) SD strategy; green color indicates intermittent (Int) SD strategy; blue color indicates stepping down (Step) SD strategy) and the percentage ratio of the unsusceptible or protected people over the whole population (Protection), x-axis, on the total number of critical cases over the ICU threshold (ICU_E), y-axis, for the entire period of analysis (end-day 25 December 2021). b Constrained optimization results showing the influence of strategy (color) and SD magnitude (circle diameters corresponding to variations between 15 and 40%) on the number of critical cases over ICU threshold for the first (ICU_E1), x-axis, and the second peak of the pandemic (ICU_E2), y-axis. c Constrained optimization results showing the influence of Window size (red color indicates 80-day windows; green color indicates 60-day windows; blue color indicates 80-day windows) and SD magnitude (circle diameters) on ICU_E1, x-axis, and ICU_E2, y-axis.