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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Feb 17.
Published in final edited form as: Risk Anal. 2020 Apr 29;41(2):303–311. doi: 10.1111/risa.13486

Figure 2: Confidence about no circulation in Borno and Yobe as a function of the detected-event free period (DEFP) assuming different estimates of less than perfect AFP surveillance, with perfect AFP surveillance, and reference lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% confidence for WPV1* (two scenarios) and WPV3.

Figure 2:

Figure 2:

* Scenario 1 assumes sufficient indirect vaccination introductions into the isolated subpopulations to eliminate undetected WPV1 transmission after the outbreak detected in 2016; Scenario 2 assumes insufficient indirect vaccination introductions into isolated subpopulations to eliminate undetected WPV1 transmission through the end of 2019.

Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period, WPV(1,3), wild poliovirus (serotypes 1, 3).