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. 2021 Jan 18;8(1):e001459. doi: 10.1136/openhrt-2020-001459

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Panel A: calibration plot for CHARGE-AF. The points indicate intersects of observed and expected for each decile of baseline CHARGE-AF risk, with brackets indicating the 95% CI of observed AF probability during 5-year follow-up in each decile. The red line indicates the trend for CHARGE-AF calibration in the sample. When the intersect of observed and expected AF incidence exceeds the dotted line, this indicates underestimation of AF risk by CHARGE-AF for that decile. When the intersect of observed and expected AF incidence is below the dotted line, this indicates overestimation of AF risk by CHARGE-AF for that decile. The spikes on the x-axis indicate the distribution of AF-free survivors by CHARGE-AF risk; panel B: Kaplan-Meier plot of AF incidence stratified according to baseline CHARGE-AF predicted risk categories <2.5%, 2.5%–5% and >5%. AF, atrial fibrillation; CHARGE-AF, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-atrial fibrillation.