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. 2021 Jan 20;4(1):e2034578. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.34578

Table 2. Estimated Incidence and Mortality RR From Multilevel Negative Binomial Models of Incidence and Mortality in 3141 US Counties.

County-level covariate Incidence rate Mortality rate
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
RR (95% CI) P value RR (95% CI) P value RR (95% CI) P value RR (95% CI) P value
Male population 1.034 (1.021-1.048) <.001 1.036 (1.022-1.049) <.001 1.007 (0.978-1.038) .63 1.008 (0.978-1.038) .06
Population aged <20 y 2713.809 (243.927-30 192.525) <.001 2111.216 (191.856-23 232.120) <.001 2 983 154.061 (9754.23-9.123 × 108) <.001 1 275 284.454 (4373.45-3.719 × 108) <.001
Population aged ≥70 y 0.220 (0.020-2.386) .21 0.342 (0.032-3.687) .38 19 579.380 (64.410-5951 385.453) .001 18 909.690 (63.609-5 621 431.000) .001
Time since first case 1.010 (1.009-1.011) <.001 1.010 (1.009-1.011) <.001 1.014 (1.012-1.017) <.001 1.015 (1.013-1.017) <.001
Population density 7.232 × 1016 (0.387-1.353 × 1034) .06 8.414 × 1020 (9154.060-7.733 × 1037) .02 5.403 × 1041 (0.000-1.445 × 1087) .07 1.153 × 1046 (92.082-1.444 × 1090) .04
ACA Medicaid expansion 0.678 (0.501-0.918) .01 0.681 (0.503-0.921) .01 1.080 (0.681-1.714) .74 1.105 (0.700-1.745) .67
Governor term Limit 1.217 (0.886-1.672) .23 1.201 (0.874-1.651) .26 1.193 (0.732-1.944) .48 1.174 (0.724-1.903) .52
Governor Republican 1.097 (0.845-1.423) .49 1.103 (0.850-1.433) .46 0.873 (0.587-1.300) .51 0.881 (0.594-1.306) .53
Governor male 1.116 (0.814-1.529) .50 1.109 (0.809-1.521) .52 1.132 (0.699-1.833) .61 1.115 (0.692-1.794) .66
Republican vote 1.003 (1.000-1.005) .046 1.002 (1.000-1.005) .11 0.999 (0.993-1.005) .79 1.000 (0.994-1.006) .97
Black population 1.019 (1.016-1.022) <.001 1.042 (1.023-1.063) <.001 1.026 (1.020-1.033) <.001 1.076 (1.029-1.125) .001
Hispanic population 1.024 (1.021-1.027) <.001 1.090 (1.069-1.112) <.001 1.019 (1.012-1.025) <.001 1.105 (1.062-1.149) <.001
Gini index 1.020 (1.012-1.027) <.001 1.041 (1.031-1.051) <.001 1.030 (1.012-1.047) .001 1.068 (1.042-1.094) <.001
Black population × Gini index NA NA 0.999 (0.999-1.000) .01 NA NA 0.999 (0.998-1.000) .03
Hispanic population × Gini index NA NA 0.999 (0.998-0.999) <.001 NA NA 0.998 (0.997-0.999) <.001
Additional state covariates 0.375 (0.358-0.394) .000 0.371 (0.353-0.389) <.001 1.839 (1.739-1.944) <.001 1.826 (1.727-1.932) <.001
Model χ2 value (df) 1762.98 (13) 1826.95 (15) 439.58 (13) 471.80 (15)

Abbreviations: ACA, Affordable Care Act; NA, not applicable.