Table 2. Estimated Incidence and Mortality RR From Multilevel Negative Binomial Models of Incidence and Mortality in 3141 US Counties.
| County-level covariate | Incidence rate | Mortality rate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | |||||
| RR (95% CI) | P value | RR (95% CI) | P value | RR (95% CI) | P value | RR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Male population | 1.034 (1.021-1.048) | <.001 | 1.036 (1.022-1.049) | <.001 | 1.007 (0.978-1.038) | .63 | 1.008 (0.978-1.038) | .06 |
| Population aged <20 y | 2713.809 (243.927-30 192.525) | <.001 | 2111.216 (191.856-23 232.120) | <.001 | 2 983 154.061 (9754.23-9.123 × 108) | <.001 | 1 275 284.454 (4373.45-3.719 × 108) | <.001 |
| Population aged ≥70 y | 0.220 (0.020-2.386) | .21 | 0.342 (0.032-3.687) | .38 | 19 579.380 (64.410-5951 385.453) | .001 | 18 909.690 (63.609-5 621 431.000) | .001 |
| Time since first case | 1.010 (1.009-1.011) | <.001 | 1.010 (1.009-1.011) | <.001 | 1.014 (1.012-1.017) | <.001 | 1.015 (1.013-1.017) | <.001 |
| Population density | 7.232 × 1016 (0.387-1.353 × 1034) | .06 | 8.414 × 1020 (9154.060-7.733 × 1037) | .02 | 5.403 × 1041 (0.000-1.445 × 1087) | .07 | 1.153 × 1046 (92.082-1.444 × 1090) | .04 |
| ACA Medicaid expansion | 0.678 (0.501-0.918) | .01 | 0.681 (0.503-0.921) | .01 | 1.080 (0.681-1.714) | .74 | 1.105 (0.700-1.745) | .67 |
| Governor term Limit | 1.217 (0.886-1.672) | .23 | 1.201 (0.874-1.651) | .26 | 1.193 (0.732-1.944) | .48 | 1.174 (0.724-1.903) | .52 |
| Governor Republican | 1.097 (0.845-1.423) | .49 | 1.103 (0.850-1.433) | .46 | 0.873 (0.587-1.300) | .51 | 0.881 (0.594-1.306) | .53 |
| Governor male | 1.116 (0.814-1.529) | .50 | 1.109 (0.809-1.521) | .52 | 1.132 (0.699-1.833) | .61 | 1.115 (0.692-1.794) | .66 |
| Republican vote | 1.003 (1.000-1.005) | .046 | 1.002 (1.000-1.005) | .11 | 0.999 (0.993-1.005) | .79 | 1.000 (0.994-1.006) | .97 |
| Black population | 1.019 (1.016-1.022) | <.001 | 1.042 (1.023-1.063) | <.001 | 1.026 (1.020-1.033) | <.001 | 1.076 (1.029-1.125) | .001 |
| Hispanic population | 1.024 (1.021-1.027) | <.001 | 1.090 (1.069-1.112) | <.001 | 1.019 (1.012-1.025) | <.001 | 1.105 (1.062-1.149) | <.001 |
| Gini index | 1.020 (1.012-1.027) | <.001 | 1.041 (1.031-1.051) | <.001 | 1.030 (1.012-1.047) | .001 | 1.068 (1.042-1.094) | <.001 |
| Black population × Gini index | NA | NA | 0.999 (0.999-1.000) | .01 | NA | NA | 0.999 (0.998-1.000) | .03 |
| Hispanic population × Gini index | NA | NA | 0.999 (0.998-0.999) | <.001 | NA | NA | 0.998 (0.997-0.999) | <.001 |
| Additional state covariates | 0.375 (0.358-0.394) | .000 | 0.371 (0.353-0.389) | <.001 | 1.839 (1.739-1.944) | <.001 | 1.826 (1.727-1.932) | <.001 |
| Model χ2 value (df) | 1762.98 (13) | 1826.95 (15) | 439.58 (13) | 471.80 (15) | ||||
Abbreviations: ACA, Affordable Care Act; NA, not applicable.