Table 1.
Modelled screening behaviour by type of screening programme: base‐case assumptions
| Screening behaviour | Cytology‐based screening programme | hrHPV‐based screening programme |
|---|---|---|
| GP test participation by age in all women of the population * | ||
| 30 years | 52.3% | 43.4% |
| 35 years | 57.9% | 49.3% |
| 40 years | 64.3% | 56.4% |
| 45 years | 67.6% | 15.6%** |
| 50 years | 70.4% | 61.5% |
| 55 years | 69.6% | 12.7%** |
| 60 years | 66.8% | 60.3% |
| 65 years | NA | 3.1%*** |
| Self‐sampling participation by age * | ||
| 30 years | NA | 5.5% |
| 35 years | NA | 4.8% |
| 40 years | NA | 4.5% |
| 45 years | NA | 0.9%** |
| 50 years | NA | 4.6% |
| 55 years | NA | 1.0%** |
| 60 years | NA | 5.7% |
| 65 years | NA | 0.2%*** |
| Adherence to cytology after a positive self‐sample | NA | 90.1% |
| Adherence to triage testing | ||
| 6 months after primary test | 92.2% | 77.1% |
| 6 months after primary self‐sample | NA | 41.6% |
| 18 months after primary test | 67.3% | NA |
| Adherence to a referral for colposcopy after a | ||
| Direct referral (ASC‐US/LSIL) | NA | 88.4% |
| Direct referral (HSIL) | 97.0% | 96.9% |
| Referral at 6 months after primary test (ASCUS/LSIL) | 97.5% | 88.4% |
| Referral at 6 months after primary test (HSIL) | 97.5% | 96.9% |
| Referral at 18 months after primary test | 52.4% | NA |
ASC‐US, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance; hrHPV, high‐risk human papillomavirus; HSIL, high‐grade squamous intra‐epithelial lesion; LSIL, low‐grade squamous intra‐epithelial lesion; NA, not applicable.
Simulated participation rate in all women excluding those who have had a hysterectomy and those with a prevalent diagnosed cancer.
Participation in the general population is much lower at ages 45 and 55 because significantly fewer women are invited for screening at these ages (i.e. only those who do not participate or test hrHPV‐positive in the preceding screening round).
Participation in the general population is much lower at age 65 because significantly fewer women are invited for screening at this age (i.e. only those who test hrHPV‐positive at age 65).