Fig. 5.

Illustration of personalised and fixed schedules of biopsies for the patient from Figure 3. Panel A: Predicted cumulative upgrading risk (95% credible interval shaded). Panel B: Different biopsy schedules with a red ‘B’ indicating a future biopsy. Risk: 5% and Risk: 10% are personalised schedules in which a biopsy is planned whenever the conditional cause‐specific cumulative upgrading risk is above 5% or 10% risk, respectively. Smaller risk thresholds lead to more frequently planned biopsies. Green vertical line at 1 year is the time of the latest negative biopsy. Black dashed line at 2 years denotes the time of the current visit. Panel C: Expected time delay in detecting upgrading (years) if patient progresses before 6 years. The maximum time delay with limited adverse consequences is 3 years [13]. A compulsory biopsy was scheduled at 6 years (maximum biopsy scheduling time in PRIAS, Appendix S3) in all schedules for a meaningful comparison between delays.