Table 1.

Research questions and Evaluation Criteria

no	Research Question (RQ)	Evaluation Criteria (C)
1	The predicted cases show a strong correlation with the real cases	c1-Correlation: The correlation between measles cases and predicted cases must exceed 0.650 and must also be statistically significant. The significance level (p) was set to be < 0.01 in two-tailed significance
2	The prediction shows the right time of measles’ outbreaks	c2-Time: The prediction point of measles outbreaks must not exceed one month in relation to the real cases and must not be observed after the outbreak
3	The predicted value of outbreaks is close to the real cases	c3-Volume of predicted cases during outbreak periods: must not exceed 28% of the real cases during outbreaks
4	The prediction includes all periods with excessive activity of measles (outbreaks)	c4-Outbreak predicted periods: the distributions of each prediction must include all outbreak periods within the 5-year examined period
5	The error of the estimate (MSE%) is smaller than 28%	c5-Mean Standard Error (MSE): the MSE of all predicted cases must not exceed 28% of the real cases mean