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. 2020 Feb 25;71(12):3144–3151. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciz1229

Table 4.

Predicted Percentage Change in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis Rates per Unit Increase in Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Coverage (Includes a 1-Year Lag), When Accounting for Changes in Viral Suppression Rates

Variable (Unit) Jurisdictions With VS Data Available (n = 33)
PrEP and VS Model Percentage Change (95% CI)
Time (per 1 year)
 50 states 1.11 (−1.06 to 3.33)
 District of Columbia −12.34 (−17.94 to −6.37)
a(PrEP coverage)t−1
  (1 per 100) −1.34 (−2.12 to −.57)
  (5 per 100) −6.55 (−10.15 to −2.80)
b(VS)t−1
  (1 per 100) −0.11 (−.53 to .32)
  (5 per 100) −0.54 (−2.63 to 1.59)

t−1 was measured during the previous year.

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis; VS, viral suppression.

aPrEP coverage rate during the previous year.

bVS rate among persons with diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus during the previous year.