Table 3.
Adjusted hazard ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and incidence rates of end-stage renal disease development according to the change of each MetS component.
| N | Events (n) | Follow-up duration (person-years) | Incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) | Adjusted hazard ratios ( 95% confidence intervals) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||||||
| WC criterion | No (–/–) | 9,652,099 | 10,380 | 48,230,672 | 0.22 | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 1,010,018 | 1705 | 5,015,280 | 0.34 | 1.23 (1.17,1.30) | 1.36 (1.29, 1.44) | 1.44 (1.36,1.52) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 892,199 | 1895 | 4,421,754 | 0.43 | 1.38 (1.32,1.45) | 1.49 (1.42, 1.57) | 1.53 (1.45,1.61) | |
| Both (+/+) | 1,756,608 | 4602 | 8,718,387 | 0.53 | 1.66 (1.60,1.72) | 1.93 (1.84, 2.02) | 1.95 (1.86, 2.05) | |
| BP criterion | No (–/–) | 5,746,514 | 1374 | 28,742,096 | 0.05 | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 1,685,406 | 1314 | 8,424,416 | 0.16 | 2.32 (2.15, 2.50) | 2.50 (2.32, 2.70) | 2.4 (2.22, 2.59) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 1,434,899 | 878 | 7,194,985 | 0.12 | 1.84 (1.69, 2.00) | 1.95 (1.79, 2.13) | 1.94 (1.78, 2.11) | |
| Both (+/+) | 4,444,105 | 15,016 | 22,024,597 | 0.68 | 7.21 (6.81, 7.63) | 8.25 (7.78, 8.74) | 7.02 (6.62, 7.44) | |
| Glucose criterion | No (–/–) | 7,347,391 | 4918 | 36,791,423 | 0.13 | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 1,760,736 | 1742 | 8,761,835 | 0.20 | 1.13 (1.07,1.20) | 1.17 (1.10, 1.23) | 1.06 (1.01, 1.12) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 1,556,909 | 1555 | 7,787,772 | 0.20 | 1.16 (1.094,1.23) | 1.191 (1.12, 1.26) | 1.15 (1.09, 1.22) | |
| Both (+/+) | 2,645,888 | 10,367 | 13,045,063 | 0.79 | 3.42 (3.30, 3.54) | 3.55 (3.43, 3.68) | 3.02 (2.91, 3.13) | |
| TG criterion | No (–/–) | 6,899,908 | 4699 | 34,438,940 | 0.14 | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 1,678,415 | 2332 | 8,385,458 | 0.28 | 1.61 (1.53, 1.69) | 1.64 (1.56, 1.73) | 1.59 (1.51, 1.67) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 1,403,163 | 1911 | 6,991,851 | 0.27 | 1.49 (1.41, 1.57) | 1.52 (1.44, 1.61) | 1.50 (1.42,1.58) | |
| Both (+/+) | 3,329,438 | 9640 | 16,569,844 | 0.58 | 2.88 (2.78, 2.98) | 2.99(2.89, 3.10) | 2.67 (2.57, 2.77) | |
| HDL-C criterion | No (–/–) | 7,854,976 | 4845 | 39,324,738 | 0.12 | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 1,620,717 | 3076 | 8,041,271 | 0.38 | 2.53 (2.42, 2.65) | 2.45 (2.34, 2.57) | 2.36 (2.25,2.47) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 1,349,503 | 1817 | 6,723,565 | 0.27 | 1.92 (1.82, 2.02) | 1.86 (1.77,1.97) | 1.84 (1.74, 1.94) | |
| Both (+/+) | 2,485,728 | 8844 | 12,296,520 | 0.72 | 4.31 (4.15, 4.47) | 4.17 (4.02, 4.33) | 3.55 (3.41, 3.68) | |
| Met S | No (–/–) | 8,167,333 | 3930 | 40,896,957 | 0.10 | 1 (ref.) | 1(ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 1,438,425 | 2210 | 7,147,323 | 0.31 | 2.23 (2.12, 2.36) | 2.68 (2.54, 2.82) | 2.54 (2.40, 2.68) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 1,105,622 | 1568 | 5,502,672 | 0.28 | 1.98 (1.87, 2.10) | 2.32 (2.19, 2.46) | 2.28 (2.15, 2.42) | |
| Both (+/+) | 2,599,544 | 10,874 | 12,839,141 | 0.85 | 5.09 (4.90, 5.28) | 6.69 (6.42, 6.97) | 5.65 (5.42, 5.89) | |
| Obesity | No (–/–) | 8,251,129 | 10,223 | 41,158,447 | 0.25 | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) | 1 (ref.) |
| Post (–/+) | 753,917 | 1065 | 3,760,971 | 0.28 | 1.13 (1.06, 1.20) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.14) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.14) | |
| Pre (+/–) | 650,083 | 1391 | 3,223,253 | 0.43 | 1.38 (1.31, 1.46) | 1.34 (1.26, 1.42) | 1.32 (1.25, 1.40) | |
| Both (+/+) | 3,655,795 | 5903 | 18,243,423 | 0.32 | 1.20 (1.16, 1.23) | 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) | 1.14 (1.08, 1.20) | |
Model 1, adjusted for No. of MetS components at 1st visit, age and sex; Model 2, Model 1 plus adjusted for smoking, drinking and exercise; Model 3, Model 2 plus adjusted for estimated GFR.
WC waist circumference, BP blood pressure, TG triglyceride, HDL-C high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, MetS metabolic syndrome.