Figure 4.

Time-specific posterior density estimates for current smoking prevalence, the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, the per capita cessation rate per year, and past smoking prevalence in the Australian population (aged 14 years and above) over the period 2001‒2016. Density estimates were derived from 10³ simulations, each of which used a randomly chosen parameter vector ($\theta$) sampled in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. Time series data from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NHSHS) are plotted in red (note that data on the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent were available for 2010‒2016 only).