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. 2021 Jan 21;11:1892. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Expected midge catch size. Relative effect on midge catch size of varying mean daily temperature, mean precipitation over previous week, and catch day of year (in each case predictor variables being fixed). Left (A): Relative expected catch sizes for a range of temperatures and mean precipitation. Middle (B): Smoothed seasonal variation at the Italian sampling site if driven by observed local temperatures only (red curve) and with sine and cosine seasonality correction (black curve). Right (C): Smoothed seasonal variation at the Swedish and Dutch sampling sites if driven by observed local temperatures only (red curve) and with sine and cosine seasonality correction (black curve).