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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Feb 17.
Published in final edited form as: Risk Anal. 2020 Mar 6;41(2):266–272. doi: 10.1111/risa.13471

Table 1:

Modeled scenarios and input assumptions based on planned supplemental immunization activities (pSIAs) for endemic blocks

Scenario pSIA schedule: vaccine (day(s) of year) Minimum pSIA impact level (TC, PRM) RI schedule
Reference case (RC) (Comparator or status quo of continued planned bOPV use through 2024)
 ≥2019 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
Alternative reference case (RC*) with increased pSIA impact level from 2020
 2019 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
 ≥2020 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 3 (0.50, 0.80) OPV+IPV
8 bOPV SIAs in 2020 followed by 6 bOPV pSIAs per year from 2021 with current pSIA impact level from 2020
 2019 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
 2020 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 105, 260, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
 ≥2021 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
8 bOPV SIAs in 2020 followed by 6 bOPV pSIAs per year from 2021 with increased pSIA impact level from 2020
 2019 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
 2020 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 105, 260, 290, 320, 350) 3 (0.50, 0.80) OPV+IPV
 ≥2021 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 3 (0.50, 0.80) OPV+IPV
4 bOPV and 2 mOPV1 SIAs with current pSIA impact level from 2020
 ≥2019 bOPV (45, 290, 320, 350), mOPV1 (15, 75) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
4 bOPV and 2 mOPV1 SIAs with increased pSIA impact level from 2020
 2019 bOPV (45, 290, 320, 350), mOPV1 (15, 75) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
 ≥2020 bOPV (45, 290, 320, 350), mOPV1 (15, 75) 3 (0.50, 0.80) OPV+IPV
6 bOPV SIAs with current pSIA impact level from 2020 with second IPV dose in RI from 2020 (see text for assumptions used)
 2019 bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+IPV
 ≥2020 (lower bound) bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+2IPV
 ≥2020 (upper bound) bOPV (15, 45, 75, 290, 320, 350) 2 (0.35, 0.95) OPV+2IPV

Abbreviations: bOPV, bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (containing serotypes 1 and 3); IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; mOPV1, serotype 1 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; pSIA, planned SIA; PRM, repeatedly missed probability; RC, reference case; RI, routine immunization; SIAs, supplemental immunization activities, TC, true coverage