Table 2:
Expected number of WPV1 cases and WPV1 elimination for different scenarios
| Scenario | Expected number of WPV1 cases in 2019–2024 | Expected WPV1 elimination |
|---|---|---|
| Reference case (RC) (Comparator or status quo of continued planned bOPV use through 2024) | 781 | No elimination |
| Reference case (RC) with increased pSIA impact level from 2020 | 324 | January 18, 2022 |
| 8 bOPV SIAs in 2020 followed by 6 bOPV pSIAs per year from 2021 with current pSIA impact level from 2020 | 624 | No elimination |
| 8 bOPV SIAs in 2020 followed by 6 bOPV pSIAs per year from 2021 with increased pSIA impact level from 2020 | 243 | March 30, 2021 |
| 4 bOPV and 2 mOPV1 SIAs with current pSIA impact level from 2020 | 754 | No elimination |
| 4 bOPV and 2 mOPV1 SIAs with increased pSIA impact level from 2020 | 308 | January 15, 2022 |
| upper bound | 631 | No elimination |
Abbreviations: bOPV, bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (containing serotypes 1 and 3 IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; mOPV1, serotype 1 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; RC, reference case; pSIA, planned SIA, RI, routine immunization; SIAs, supplemental immunization activities; WPV1, wild poliovirus serotype 1