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. 2020 Dec 4;6(49):eabd6370. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd6370

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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

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Fig. 1 — Posterior fitting to daily cases and deaths in the United States (A and B) and the New York metropolitan area (C and D). Orange dots represent observations. Blue and gray lines are the median estimate and 95% CIs, respectively. The estimated effective reproductive number, R_e, in six metropolitan areas are shown in (E). The black dotted line indicates R_e = 1. (F) The estimated ascertainment rate over time. The blue line and gray dashed lines are the median estimates and 95% CIs, respectively. (G) The estimated cumulative infections (both reported and unreported) in six metropolitan areas. We compare the reported seroprevalence (%) in nine locations on different dates with the inferred percentage cumulative infections on those dates in (H). Whiskers show 95% CIs. Details on the serological survey are provided in Materials and Methods.