Table 2. Univariate analysis of predictor variables for adverse outcome (derivation cohort).

Predictor Variable	Category (categorical variables)	n (outcome)		Odds ratio	p-value	95% CI
		Adverse	Non adverse
Age (n = 11773)				1.04	0.00	(1.04, 1.04)
Sex (n = 11636)	Ref = Female	1008	4882
	Male	1413	4333	1.58	0.000	(1.44, 1.73)
Ethnicity Category (n = 9954)	Ref = UK/Irish/other white	1767	6609
	Asian	138	561	0.92	0.399	(0.76, 1.12)
	Black/African/Caribbean	72	296	0.91	0.481	(0.70, 1.18)
	Mixed/multiple ethnic groups	28	150	0.70	0.084	(0.46, 1.05)
	Other	39	294	0.50	0.000	(0.35, 0.70)
Shortness of breath (n = 11746)	Ref = No	536	2640
	Yes	1896	6674	1.40	0.000	(1.26, 1.56)
Cough (n = 11746)	Ref = No	1065	3433
	Yes	1367	5881	0.75	0.000	(0.68, 0.82)
Fever (n = 11746)	Ref = No	1274	4758
	Yes	1158	4556	0.95	0.253	(0.87, 1.04)
Hypertension (n = 11732)	Ref = No	1445	6660
	Yes	995	2632	1.74	0.000	(1.59, 1.91)
Heart Disease (n = 11732)	Ref = No	1680	7540
	Yes	760	1752	1.95	0.000	(1.76, 2.15)
Diabetes (n = 11732)	Ref = No	1733	7605
	Yes	707	1687	1.84	0.000	(1.66, 2.04)
Asthma (n = 11732)	Ref = No	2143	7722
	Yes	297	1570	0.68	0.000	(0.60, 0.78)
Other chronic lung disease (n = 11732)	Ref = No	1919	7766
	Yes	521	1526	1.38	0.000	(1.24, 1.54)
Renal impairment (n = 11732)	Ref = No	2051	8607
	Yes	389	685	2.38	0.000	(2.09, 2.72)
Active malignancy (n = 11732)	Ref = No	2248	8907
	Yes	192	385	1.98	0.000	(1.65, 2.36)
Immunosuppression (n = 11732)	Ref = No	2360	9060
	Yes	80	232	1.32	0.033	(1.02, 1.71)
Steroid therapy (n = 11732)	Ref = No	2363	9066
	Yes	77	226	1.31	0.046	(1.01, 1.70)
Symptom duration (n = 10790)				0.97	0.000	(0.96, 0.98)
Number current medications (n = 11183)				1.09	0.00	(1.08, 1.10)
Respiratory rate (n = 11773)	Ref = 12–20 or missing	644	5061
	<9	3	5	4.72	0.034	(1.12, 19.78)
	9–11	3	8	2.95	0.111	(0.78, 11.14)
	21–24	581	2191	2.08	0.000	(1.84, 2.36)
	>24	1213	2064	4.62	0.000	(4.14, 5.15)
Systolic Blood Pressure (n = 11773)	Ref = 111–219 or missing	1860	8093
	101–110	269	745	1.57	0.000	(1.35, 1.82)
	91–100	170	320	2.31	0.000	(1.91, 2.80)
	<91	137	143	4.17	0.000	(3.28, 5.30)
	>219	8	28	1.24	0.588	(0.57, 2.73)
Heart rate (n = 11773)	Ref = 51–90 or missing	1007	4353
	<41	15	42	1.54	0.152	(0.85, 2.79)
	41–50	12	42	1.24	0.521	(0.65, 2.35)
	91–110	776	3112	1.08	0.159	(0.97, 1.20)
	111–130	450	1367	1.42	0.000	(1.25, 1.62)
	>130	184	413	1.93	0.000	(1.60, 2.32)
Temperature (n = 11773)	Ref = 36.1–38.0 or missing	1498	6747
	35.1–36	245	958	1.15	0.067	(0.99, 1.34)
	38.1–39	446	1137	1.77	0.000	(1.56, 2.00)
	>39.0	166	386	1.94	0.000	(1.60, 2.34)
	<35.1	89	101	3.97	0.000	(2.97, 5.31)
GCS Total (n = 8627)	Ref = Mild (13–15)	1551	6618
	Moderate (9–12)	187	150	5.32	0.000	(4.26, 6.64)
	Severe (< = 8)	73	48	6.49	0.000	(4.49, 9.38)
AVPU (n = 10258)	Ref = Alert	1756	8018
	Verbal	176	157	5.12	0.000	(4.10, 6.39)
	Pain	62	39	7.26	0.000	(4.85, 10.87)
	Unresponsive	32	18	8.12	0.000	(4.55, 14.49)
Performance status (n = 11153)	Ref = Unrestricted normal activity	709	5280
	Limited strenuous activity, can do light activity	268	1047	1.91	0.000	(1.63, 2.23)
	Limited activity, can self care	430	1135	2.82	0.000	(2.46, 3.23)
	Limited self care	560	934	4.47	0.000	(3.92, 5.09)
	Bed/chair bound, no self care	334	456	5.45	0.000	(4.64, 6.41)
Severe respiratory distress (n = 11773)	Ref = No	2250	9184
	Yes	194	145	5.46	0.000	(4.38, 6.81)
Respiratory exhaustion (n = 11773)	Ref = No	2360	9227
	Yes	84	102	3.22	0.000	(2.40, 4.31)
Severe dehydration (n = 11773)	Ref = No	2373	9240
	Yes	71	89	3.11	0.000	(2.27, 4.26)
Previous attendance (n = 11773)	Ref = No	2160	8429
	Yes	284	900	1.23	0.004	(1.07, 1.42)
Known contact with Covid-19 case (n = 1177	Ref = No	2175	8474
	Yes	269	855	1.23	0.006	(1.06, 1.42)
Central capillary refill (n = 2935)	Ref = Normal	486	2179
	Abnormal	101	169	2.68	0.000	(2.05, 3.49)