Table 3.
Development of person-time and PLHIV with viral suppression and viremia for PLHIV after ART initiation between 1999 and 2018, based on our longitudinal model (3a) and using the most recent VL in each year (3b)
| People who ever initiated ART | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longitudinal model | Conventional method | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | Viral suppression (< 50) | 50 - < 200 | 200 - < 500 | 500 - < 1000 | 1000 - < 10,000 | 10,000 - < 100,000 | 100,000 - < 1,000,000 | > 1,000,000 | Year | Viral suppression (< 50) | 50 - < 200 | 200 - < 500 | 500 - < 1000 | 1000 - < 10,000 | 10,000 - < 100,000 | 100,000 - < 1,000,000 | > 1,000,000 | Difference in viral suppression between the methods |
| 1999 | 33.6 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 1999 | 51.7 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 18.1 |
| 2000 | 52.8 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 2000 | 62.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 9.4 |
| 2001 | 59.1 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 2001 | 64.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 5.2 |
| 2002 | 61.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 2002 | 64.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | 65.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 2003 | 68.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
| 2004 | 65.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 2004 | 67.1 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| 2005 | 68.2 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 2005 | 69.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| 2006 | 71.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 2006 | 74.6 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 3.3 |
| 2007 | 74.1 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2007 | 75.5 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 2008 | 77.2 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2008 | 78.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| 2009 | 79.1 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2009 | 80.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| 2010 | 80.6 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2010 | 83.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.7 |
| 2011 a | 82.9 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2011 | 85.1 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| 2012 | 84.3 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2012 | 85.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| 2013 | 85.5 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2013 | 87.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| 2014 | 88.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2014 | 90.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| 2015 b | 90.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2015 | 91.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 90.3 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2016 | 91.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| 2017 | 92.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2017 | 93.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 2018 | 93.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2018 | 93.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
a The UNAIDS target of viral suppression using the longitudinal model with VL < 200 copies/ml has been met for PLHIV after ART initiation in the study population in Germany since 2011
b The UNAIDS target of viral suppression using the longitudinal model with VL < 50 copies/ml has been met for PLHIV after ART initiation in the study population in Germany since 2015