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. 2021 Jan 21;34:100437. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100437

Table 9.

Scenarios C1 and C2: early lockdown vs. late lockdown. Parameters and epidemic outputs.

Par. C1 C2
δ 1/2

μ 0.058/14

p 0 if t21
0.9 if t>21
0 if t49
0.9 if t>49

r 1 if t21
0.2 if t>21
1 if t49
0.2 if t>49

ρ 0.02

R0 2.29 if t21
0.62 if t>21
2.29 if t49
0.62 if t>49

Peak day 29 57

Peak size
(maximum of Q)
3.14×105 8.69×103

Recovered 1.01 ×104 2.78 ×102

Deaths 4.47 ×106 1.23 ×103

Positive tests 7.19 ×105 1.97 ×102

Ending day 217 330