Table 2.
Linear regression model assessing the impact of different factors on COVID-19 prevalence after the relaxation of stay-at-home order.a
| SAH order relaxation + 7 days |
SAH order relaxation + 14 days |
SAH order relaxation + 21 days |
SAH order relaxation + 28 days |
Current Timeb |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (SE)c | P-value | Mean (SE)c | P-value | Mean (SE)c | P-value | Mean (SE)c | P-value | Mean (SE)c | P-value | |
| 7-day change in prevalence at the time of relaxation of SAH order | ||||||||||
| 19.6(0.5) | < 0.001 | 22(0.5) | < 0.001 | 23.8(0.6) | < 0.001 | 24.9(0.6) | < 0.001 | 28.7(1.2) | < 0.001 | |
| County Groupsd (High Change group as reference) | ||||||||||
| Low Change group | −33.8(19.8) | < 0.001 | −58.8(20.8) | < 0.001 | −93.4(22.2) | < 0.001 | −124.6(23.3) | < 0.001 | −789.5(46.3) | < 0.001 |
| No SAH Group | −42.8(19.9) | 0.031 | −22.7(21.6) | 0.292 | −32.7(22.7) | 0.150 | −41.4(22.8) | 0.070 | −411.5(46.2) | < 0.001 |
| No SAH End group | −167(60.7) | < 0.01 | −167.5(63.8) | < 0.01 | −181.1(67.4) | 0.070 | −150.5(69.2) | < 0.05 | −383.1(143.6) | < 0.01 |
| Social distancing index | ||||||||||
| 7.0(1.1) | < 0.001 | 7.8(1.2) | < 0.001 | 9.4(1.3) | < 0.001 | 5.1(1.5) | < 0.01 | 7.1(3.1) | < 0.05 | |
| R- squared of model performance | ||||||||||
| 0.339 | 0.369 | 0.381 | 0.398 | 0.250 | ||||||
COVID-19: Coronavirus Disease 2019, SE: Standard Error, SAH: Stay-at-Home.
The linear regression model with the COVID-19 prevalence at 7, 14, 21, 28 days after the relaxation of SAH order and at the current time (i.e. august 21, 2020) as the outcome (dependent variable), using the 50th percentile rank as the cut point to identify states in the High Change and Low Change groups.
Current time refers to the time of completing this study (i.e. august 21, 2020).
The mean and standard errors or the parameter estimates are the coefficients of the regression model for independent variables in the model (i.e., 7-day change in prevalence at the time of relaxation of SAH order, county groups, and social distancing index).
High Change group (counties in 19 states with the 7-day change in COVID-19 prevalence at the time of SAH order relaxation at 50th percentile and higher), Low Change group (counties in 19 states with the 7-day change in prevalence below 50th percentile), No SAH group (counties in 11 states that did not adopt a SAH order), and No SAH End (counties in 2 states that did not relax the SAH order).