. 2021 Jan 21;73:101783. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2021.101783

Table 3.

ARIMA and Poisson Models for Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings.

Variable/Model	Fatal		Nonfatal All		Nonfatal Injury		Nonfatal No Injury
Variable/Model	ARIMA (0, 0, 0)	POISSON	ARIMA (1, 0, 6)	QMLNBR (V = 0.026448)	ARIMA (1, 0, 1)	POISSON	ARIMA (1, 0, 1)	POISSON
Intercept (c)	0.56 (0.11)^⁎⁎	−0.56 (0.15)^⁎⁎	0.79 (0.26)^⁎⁎	1.62(0.07)^⁎⁎	0.18 (0.06)^⁎⁎	0.69 (0.08)^⁎⁎	0.86 (0.37)^⁎	1.22(0.07)^⁎⁎
COVID-19 (ω)	2.44 (0.94)^⁎	1.66(0.60)^⁎⁎	0.60 (0.23)^⁎	0.28 (0.08)^⁎⁎	0.15 (0.10)^a	0.37 (0.12)^⁎⁎	0.49 (0.21)^⁎	0.27 (0.09)^⁎⁎
Q 2–3	0.30 (0.14)^⁎	0.40 (0.17)^⁎	0.68 (0.20)^⁎⁎	0.32 (0.06)^⁎⁎	0.23 (0.07)^⁎⁎	0.35 (09)^⁎⁎	0.59 (0.23)^⁎	0.35 (0.07)^⁎⁎
BLM	0.41 (0.39)	0.36 (0.37)	0.83 (0.40)^⁎	−0.02 (0.15)	0.95 (21)^⁎⁎	0.14 (0.19)	−0.24 (0.33)	−0.19 (0.18)
δy_t-1	0.04 (0.07)	0.05 (0.08)	0.85 (0.04)^⁎⁎	0.03 (0.01)^⁎⁎	0.90 (0.02)^⁎⁎	0.06 (0.02)^⁎⁎	0.75 (0.10)^⁎⁎	0.02 (0.01)a
AR(1)	–	–	–^b	–	–^b	–	–^b	–
MA(1)	–	–	−0.75 (0.06)^⁎⁎	–	−0.88 (0.04)^⁎⁎	–	−0.67 (0.11)^⁎⁎	–
MA(6)	–	–	–^b	–	–	–	–	–
Adj. R-squared	0.05	0.05	0.42	0.38	0.36	0.32	0.22	0.20
SIC	2.80	2.47	5.31	5.22	4.31	4.15	4.72	4.61
Ljung-Box Q	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Correlogram	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
ARCH
F-statistic	0.02	–	0.97	–	0.05	–	0.07	–
Obs^⁎R²	0.02	–	0.98	–	0.05	–	0.07	–
Jarque-Bera	48.54^⁎⁎	50.01^⁎⁎	10.87^⁎⁎	18.76^⁎⁎	6.85^⁎	13.43^⁎⁎	29.87^⁎⁎	60.63^⁎⁎

Notes. Pre-intervention period: 1/2/2017–3/16/2020 (168 weeks). Post-intervention period: 3/23/2020–10/5/2020 (29 weeks).

NA = No Autocorrelation.

The abrupt-temporary model was used for fatal shootings, while the gradual-permanent model was used for non-fatal shootings.

^⁎⁎

Significant at α = 0.01.

^⁎

Significant at α = 0.05.

Significant at α = 0.10.

AR or MA terms were removed from the models due to their lack of significance.