Table 4.
ARIMA and Poisson Models for Gang and Non-Gang Related Shootings.
| Variable/Model | Gang |
Non-Gang |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA (0, 0, 2) | QMLNBR (0.780229) | ARIMA (1, 0, 0) | POISSON | |
| Intercept (c) | 1.04 (0.34)⁎⁎ | 0.04 (22) | 2.43 (60)⁎⁎ | 1.08 (0.10)⁎⁎ |
| COVID-19 (ω) | 1.49 (0.55)⁎⁎ | 0.92 (0.33)⁎⁎ | −0.93 (0.76) | −0.15 (0.11) |
| Q 2–3 | −0.06 (0.46) | −0.08 (0.31) | 2.61 (0.76)⁎⁎ | 0.51 (0.12)⁎⁎ |
| BLM | 1.20 (0.91) | 0.40 (0.48) | 0.30 (1.32) | 0.06 (0.19) |
| δyt-11 | −0.00 (11) | 0.01 (0.06) | 0.34 (0.10)⁎⁎ | 0.06 (0.01)⁎⁎ |
| AR(1) | – | – | –a | – |
| MA(2) | –a | – | – | – |
| Adj. R-squared | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| SIC | 4.38 | 3.50 | 5.13 | 5.13 |
| Ljung-Box Q | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Correlogram | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| ARCH | ||||
| F-statistic | 0.24 | – | 4.95⁎ | – |
| Obs⁎R2 | 0.25 | – | 4.95⁎ | – |
| Jarque-Bera | 112.36⁎⁎ | 50.95 | 3.66 | 6.68⁎ |
Notes. Pre-intervention period: 12/31/2018–3/16/2020 (64 weeks); Post-intervention period: 3/23/2020–10/5/2020 (29 weeks).
NA = No Autocorrelation.
⁎⁎
Significant at α = 0.01.
⁎
Significant at α = 0.05.
a
AR or MA terms were removed from the models due to their lack of significance.