Table 1.
Impact of Pandemic Onset on Crime.
| Panel A (Property and Drug Crime) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dependent variable: Log of Crime Incidents |
||||||||
| Overall | Property | Drug | Burglary (Residential) | Burglary (Non-Residential) | Theft | Theft from Car | Car Theft | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| After*Treat | −0.265*** | −0.214*** | −1.047*** | −0.268*** | 0.321*** | −0.331*** | −0.227*** | 0.02 |
| (0.024) | (0.029) | (0.112) | (0.052) | (0.077) | (0.033) | (0.052) | (0.055) | |
| After | 0.108*** | 0.107*** | 0.083 | 0.02 | 0.120* | 0.093*** | 0.186*** | 0.059 |
| (0.024) | (0.032) | (0.063) | (0.038) | (0.068) | (0.032) | (0.045) | (0.036) | |
| Treat | −0.051 | −0.015 | −0.318*** | −0.473*** | 0.218*** | −0.052** | 0.148*** | 0.170*** |
| (0.015) | (0.019) | (0.055) | (0.032) | (0.057) | (0.023) | (0.035) | (0.033) | |
| Observations | 1221 | 1221 | 759 | 890 | 887 | 1221 | 1034 | 1220 |
| # of Cities | 19 | 19 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 16 | 19 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.976 | 0.952 | 0.871 | 0.882 | 0.81 | 0.959 | 0.897 | 0.893 |
| Panel B (Violent Crime) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dependent variable: Log of Crime Incidents |
||||||||
| Violent | Robbery | Aggravated Assault | Simple Assault | Homicide | Rape | Domestic Violence | Shooting | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| After*Treat | −0.215*** | −0.226*** | −0.173*** | −0.406*** | 0.056 | −0.487*** | −0.190*** | 0.01 |
| (0.031) | (0.042) | (0.047) | (0.035) | (0.095) | (0.084) | (0.05) | (0.085) | |
| After | 0.135*** | 0.085** | 0.179*** | 0.129*** | 0.206*** | 0.177** | 0.052 | 0.095 |
| (0.011) | (0.017) | (0.018) | (0.013) | (0.037) | (0.032) | (0.017) | (0.087) | |
| Treat | 0.074*** | −0.084*** | 0.149*** | 0.039 | 0.132* | −0.112* | −0.095*** | 0.297*** |
| (0.022) | (0.03) | (0.031) | (0.024) | (0.066) | (0.066) | (0.028) | (0.083) | |
| Observations | 1221 | 1220 | 1155 | 836 | 901 | 1083 | 264 | 844 |
| # of Cities | 19 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 14 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.961 | 0.921 | 0.936 | 0.969 | 0.608 | 0.714 | 0.976 | 0.824 |
Note: *p<0.1 **p<0.05 ***p < 0.01
This table reports the change in crime incidents from the pandemic onset using the difference-in-difference specification in equation (1). Each column reports a separate regression, with overall crime, all property crimes, drug crime, and specific property crimes reported in Panel A using weekly crime data from 19 large U.S. cities for 2015 – 2020. Panel B reports the results for overall violent crime as well as by specific violent crime category. Observations range from 7 weeks before stay-at-home order to 4 weeks after in that city; the same weeks of the year are used for all years. After = 1 beginning the week of the stay-at-home order and 0 otherwise; Treat = 1 for 2020 and 0 otherwise. All regressions include city and week fixed effects. Standard errors calculated by wild bootstrap. Data source: city police departments.