Table 3.
Information criteria evaluated during the modelling phase. All information criteria are shown with their standard error.
| Models | Without Temporal Trend (A) | With Temporal Trend (B) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAIC * | LOO-CV ** | WAIC | LOO-CV | |
| M1—Log-linear | 5350.4 ± 73.7 | 5350.4 ± 73.7 | 5353.2 ± 73.9 | 5353.3 ± 73.9 |
| M2—Log-linear with spatially unstructured random intercept | 5152.3 ± 58.7 | 5154.2 ± 58.8 | 5153.2 ± 58.8 | 5155.1 ± 58.8 |
| M3—Log-linear with spatially structured random intercept | 5306.4 ± 67.0 | 5314.5 ± 67.6 | 5306.9 ± 67.1 | 5314.6 ± 67.6 |
| M4—Log-linear with the BYM# convolution random component | 5163.8 ± 58.0 | 5171.3 ± 58.4 | 5163.7 ± 58.0 | 5171.2 ± 58.5 |
* WAIC = Watanabe—Akaike Information Criteria; ** LOO-CV = Leave-one-out Cross-Validation Information criteria; #BYM = Besag, York and Mollié.