Fig. 5.

Hierarchical asymptomatic infectious period$C_{\mathrm{a}}$estimation. Assuming an initial fixed reproduction number $R_0$$=$ 3.87 (95%CI: 3.01–4.66) [73], the simulation generates histograms of the asymptomatic infectious period $C_{\mathrm{a}}$ for each location based on the location-specific symptomatic fraction ${\nu }_{\mathrm{s}}$. The black dots and gray regions represent the reported and simulated detected cases $\hat{D}\left(t\right)$ and $D\left(t\right)$ respectively. The hierarchical hyperdistribution for the asymptomatic infectious period results in $C_{\mathrm{a}}$$=$ 5.76 (95%CI: 3.59–8.09) days, right histogram.