Table 1.

Summary of input parameters.

	Unmitigated	Mitigated	Suppression 1	Suppression 2
Population-level disease parameters (Ferguson et al8)
Total deaths∗	510, 000	255, 000	15, 000	46, 000
ICU bed days†	7, 130, 158	3, 561, 617	141, 548	385, 326
Hospital (non-ICU) bed days‡	17, 587, 724	8, 785, 321	349, 152	950, 470
Macroeconomic parameters (Keogh-Brown et al9)
1-year national income loss (%)	1.84%	2.75%	6.05%	6.05%
Workforce unemployed (%)§	34%
Weeks of unemployment§,‖	1	4	62	57
Patient-level QALY loss and costed resource use parameters
Average QALY loss due to COVID-19 death	8.79882
Average QALY loss for ICU bed day	0.00110
Average QALY loss for hospital (non-ICU) bed day	0.00002
Average QALY loss due to unemployment (per week)§	0.00161
Average cost for ICU bed day	£1,152
Average cost for hospital (non-ICU) bed day	£933
Average (to death) healthcare saving due to COVID-19 death	£25, 544
Average cost for end-of-life care§	£232

AUC indicates area under the curve; COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; ICU, intensive care unit; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years.

^∗For unmitigated and mitigated total deaths as reported in text. For both suppression strategies taken from Table 5.

^†For unmitigated and mitigated calculated using AUCs in Figure 2. For suppression 1 AUC in Figure 4 gives deaths for R₀ = 2.2 and so converted to R₀ = 2.4 using peak ICU bed numbers in Table 4 and assuming proportionality between total ICU bed days and ICU peaks.

^‡Calculated using Ferguson assumptions: 30% of those hospitalized need critical care (CC); CC patients have 10 ICU + 6 non-ICU bed days; other patients hospitalized have 8 non-ICU bed days.

^§For scenario analyses only.

^‖1 and 4 weeks are taken from Keogh-Brown et al⁹ but 62 and 57 weeks based on % of time with social distancing in place reported in Table 4 of Ferguson et al.⁸