Table 1.

Model input parameters for analysis of COVID-19 intervention strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa

			Base case value	Data source
Cohort age groups, years
	0–19		40·26%	11
	20–59		51·48%	11
	≥60		8·26%	11
Proportion of individuals in each health state at model start, %
	Susceptible		99·900%	Assumption
	Infected
		Preinfectious latency stage	0·030%	Assumption
		Asymptomatic	0·030%	Assumption
		Mild or moderate disease	0·030%	Assumption
		Severe disease	0·005%	Assumption
		Critical disease	0·005%	Assumption
	Recuperation after critical disease		0·000%	Assumption
	Recovered		0·000%	Assumption
Re			1·5 (1·1–2·6)	12
Daily probability of onward transmission by health state*
	Asymptomatic		0·1556	Appendix (pp 3, 6)
	Mild or moderate disease		0·1266	Appendix (pp 3, 6)
	Severe disease		0·0088	Appendix (pp 3, 6)
	Critical disease		0·0070	Appendix (pp 3, 6)
	Recuperation after critical disease		0·0088	Appendix (pp 3, 6)
PCR testing†
	Sensitivity‡, %		70 (50–90)	13, 14
	Specificity, %		100	Assumption
	Cost, 2019 US$		26 (13–52)	Appendix (pp 6, 7)
	Time to result return and action, days		5 (1–7)	Appendix (pp 6, 7)
Resource availability per 11 000 000 people, n
	Hospital beds		26 220	15
	Intensive care unit beds		748	15
	Isolation centre beds		As needed, no capacity limitation	Assumption
	Quarantine centre beds		As needed, no capacity limitation	Assumption
Cost per person, 2019 US$
	Hospital bed, daily		165 (83–330)	16
	Intensive care unit bed, daily		2059 (1030–4118)	17
	Contact tracing/mass symptom screen, per instance		3 (2–6)	Appendix (pp 24–27)
	Isolation centre bed, daily		44 (22–88)	Appendix (pp 23, 25–27)
	Quarantine centre bed, daily		37 (19–74)	Appendix (pp 23, 25–27)

Data in parentheses are ranges used in sensitivity analysis. R_e=effective reproductive number.

^*Transmission probabilities in a scenario where R_e is 1·5.

^†Nasopharangeal specimens.

^‡Test sensitivity does not vary by disease stage, with the exception of the preinfectious latency phase in which it is 0%.