Table 1b.

Empirical Results of Quartic Model of Cases with K $=$ 100.

Name	$y_{max}$	$\hat{\mu }$	$\hat{\gamma }$	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	log_likelihood
USA	31178	138	−9.69	−0.19	−0.17	−0.13	−0.17	−0.02	−0.03	−15.73***
	(37612)	(126)	(2.51)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
Brazil	38309	250	−0.63	−0.33	−0.37	0.04	0.1	0.1	0.15	2.21*
	(7695)	(21)	(0.12)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)
Russia	10149	158	−15.87	0.07	−0.33	−0.03	0.01	0.05	0.04	−65.09***
	(25297)	(266)	(3.6)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)
India	17207	247	−0.72	−0.03	−0.11	−0.1	−0.07	−0.11	−0.03	−5.52**
	(3825)	(23)	(0.13)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)
UK	4233	125	−28.99	−0.05	−0.2	−0.1	−0.13	−0.01	0.04	−48.42*
	(3602)	(92)	(2.54)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.16)
Peru	5575	176	−5.7	0.13	−1.38	−0.52	0.31	0.08	−0.06	−168.7*
	(16008)	(402)	(4.33)	(0.52)	(0.52)	(0.52)	(0.51)	(0.51)	(0.52)
Chile	6730	250	−0.52	−0.09	−0.15	−0.16	0.04	0.04	0.03	−60.14*
	(2325)	(39)	(0.22)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.18)
Spain	318	250	0.46	−0.41	−0.01	−0.04	0.2	0.23	0.12	−72.63*
	(123)	(44)	(0.25)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
Italy	5692	0	−0.4	−0.14	−0.32	−0.2	0	0.03	−0.05	−53.04*
	(1778)	(34)	(0.19)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)
Iran	1634	11	0.11	−0.04	0.01	0	0.04	0.01	−0.49	−117.27*
	(1034)	(73)	(0.43)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)
Mexico	5761	244	−0.67	0.01	−0.17	−0.02	0.02	0.1	0.11	45.53***
	(808)	(14)	(0.08)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)
France	485	250	0.33	−0.85	−0.25	0.1	−0.17	0.06	−0.09	−98.55*
	(224)	(57)	(0.32)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.26)
Pakistan	8976	250	−0.6	−0.03	−0.1	−0.09	−0.43	−0.27	−0.87	−152.75*
	(6400)	(97)	(0.55)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)
Turkey	2566	131	−24.26	−0.05	−0.11	−0.02	−0.07	0.03	0.04	−90.66 **
	(3154)	(147)	(3.94)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.23)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Germany	395	250	0.37	−0.23	−0.01	0.1	0.17	−0.16	0.35	−122.87*
	(243)	(72)	(0.41)	(0.33)	(0.33)	(0.33)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.33)
Saudi Arabia	4865	226	−0.98	−0.13	−0.09	−0.07	−0.12	−0.08	−0.49	−92.69***
	(3092)	(70)	(0.47)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Bangladesh	3957	221	−2.03	0.13	0.19	0.2	0.17	0.22	0.18	−99.87***
	(2643)	(81)	(0.57)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)
South Africa	70	0	0.54	0.19	0.09	−0.01	0.02	0.21	0.28	−85.11*
	(29)	(47)	(0.26)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.22)	(0.22)	(0.23)
Canada	1426	127	−34.37	−0.07	−0.06	−0.08	0.02	0.07	−0.03	−38.58*
	(1071)	(80)	(2.27)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.14)
Qatar	1969	180	−5.18	−0.09	−0.17	−0.06	−0.16	−0.13	−0.46	−78.82*
	(2625)	(146)	(1.5)	(0.21)	(0.21)	(0.21)	(0.21)	(0.21)	(0.21)
Colombia	2122	250	−0.48	−0.19	−0.16	0	0.07	−0.58	0.07	−119.27*
	(1262)	(70)	(0.39)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.32)
Sweden	626	130	−23.51	−0.27	0.18	0.6	0.79	0.82	0.15	−151.51***
	(1122)	(260)	(7.14)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.44)
Egypt	2440	250	−0.53	−0.65	−0.36	−0.1	−0.88	−0.18	−0.31	−159.25*
	(1858)	(104)	(0.58)	(0.47)	(0.47)	(0.47)	(0.47)	(0.47)	(0.47)
Belgium	1690	19	−0.6	−0.29	−0.5	−0.27	−0.27	0.01	0.03	−109.04*
	(1009)	(73)	(0.46)	(0.29)	(0.29)	(0.29)	(0.28)	(0.28)	(0.29)
Belarus	954	165	−12.01	−0.16	0.55	0.4	0.4	0.57	0.57	−154.66*
	(3185)	(510)	(6.31)	(0.45)	(0.45)	(0.45)	(0.45)	(0.45)	(0.45)
Argentina	164	0	0.37	−1.27	−0.26	−0.96	−0.42	−1.42	−0.41	−193.39*
	(128)	(139)	(0.76)	(0.67)	(0.67)	(0.67)	(0.66)	(0.66)	(0.67)
Ecuador	742	170	−3.04	0.01	−0.12	−0.01	−0.06	−0.34	0.23	−121.02***
	(1471)	(303)	(3.5)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.32)
Indonesia	1129	232	−0.53	−0.15	−0.27	−0.07	−0.32	−0.02	0	−66.93**
	(530)	(50)	(0.32)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)
Netherlands	1156	0	−0.3	0	−0.57	−0.2	−0.15	0.12	0.08	−92.16*
	(512)	(51)	(0.28)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)
UAE	1187	145	−27.54	−0.58	−0.02	−0.14	−0.42	−0.19	−0.99	−150.17**
	(5939)	(724)	(12.04)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.43)

This table uses the latest K $=$ 100 days’ (until 2020-06-26) data to fit the quartic model.

Standard errors are in parentheses below the estimates.

$\hat{\mu }$ is the estimated day of the peak, taking 2020-12-31 as day 0.

The number of * at the last column denotes the relative goodness of fit based on log likelihood, where *** indicates the model of the best fit among others.