Table 1c.

Empirical Results of Gamma Model of Cases with K $=$ 100.

Name	$y_{max}$	$\hat{\mu }$	$\hat{c}$	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	log_likelihood
USA	33085	133	8.21	−0.19	−0.16	−0.11	−0.18	−0.03	−0.04	−31.09**
	(22014)	(3)	(1.41)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)
Brazil	50411	218	14.64	−0.33	−0.37	0.04	0.09	0.09	0.15	7.69 **
	(57481)	(11)	(0.95)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)
Russia	13501	143	40.48	0.08	−0.31	0	0.02	0.07	0.03	−70.12**
	(16091)	(1)	(2.08)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)
India	16085	194	18.57	−0.03	−0.11	−0.1	−0.07	−0.11	−0.03	−4.5***
	(17871)	(7)	(1.08)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)
UK	5369	118	21.01	−0.05	−0.21	−0.11	−0.15	−0.03	0.03	−11.21***
	(1777)	(1)	(1.15)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
Peru	6187	145	34.37	0.13	−1.36	−0.5	0.33	0.11	−0.06	−167.02**
	(15394)	(5)	(5.47)	(0.51)	(0.51)	(0.51)	(0.5)	(0.5)	(0.51)
Chile	NA	4101	5.69	−0.09	−0.15	−0.17	0	0.01	0.03	−43.4**
	(NA)	(37121)	(1.59)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.15)
Spain	NaN	−127	−2.53	−0.43	−0.03	−0.02	0.22	0.22	0.11	−57.38**
	(NaN)	(186)	(1.83)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)
Italy	14321	42	2.48	−0.14	−0.32	−0.2	−0.04	−0.01	−0.04	−15.14***
	(32526)	(13)	(1.2)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
Iran	1698	101	−4.13	−0.03	0.01	0.01	0.03	0	−0.49	−116.95***
	(375)	(16)	(3.32)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)	(0.31)
Mexico	5206	189	16.81	0.01	−0.17	−0.02	0.02	0.1	0.11	45.47**
	(3470)	(4)	(0.65)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)
France	NaN	−787	−3.03	−0.84	−0.25	0.1	−0.15	0.06	−0.1	−95.27**
	(NaN)	(5143)	(2.67)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.25)
Pakistan	NA	436	8.76	−0.03	−0.11	−0.1	−0.46	−0.3	−0.87	−151.06**
	(NA)	(594)	(4.67)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.44)
Turkey	3058	121	17.89	−0.04	−0.09	0	−0.08	0.02	0.04	−88.89***
	(2248)	(2)	(2.51)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)
Germany	220	264	−7.1	−0.23	−0.01	0.1	0.19	−0.14	0.35	−122.49**
	(980)	(152)	(3.51)	(0.33)	(0.33)	(0.33)	(0.32)	(0.32)	(0.33)
Saudi Arabia	4358	175	18.17	−0.13	−0.09	−0.07	−0.12	−0.07	−0.49	−92.94*
	(9388)	(11)	(2.61)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Bangladesh	3346	172	33.73	0.13	0.19	0.2	0.17	0.23	0.17	−100.57**
	(6902)	(6)	(2.82)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)	(0.26)
South Africa	18	42	−3.33	0.19	0.09	−0.01	0.07	0.26	0.28	−55.94***
	(58)	(15)	(1.8)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)
Canada	1819	120	23.89	−0.07	−0.07	−0.09	−0.01	0.04	−0.03	−17.07***
	(711)	(1)	(1.22)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
Qatar	2103	149	33.02	−0.08	−0.16	−0.04	−0.15	−0.11	−0.47	−75.16***
	(2862)	(2)	(2.18)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
Colombia	NaN	−1177	4.55	−0.19	−0.16	0	0.03	−0.62	0.07	−115.09***
	(NaN)	(8904)	(3.26)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)
Sweden	670	128	14.22	−0.27	0.18	0.59	0.76	0.79	0.15	−152.78**
	(975)	(5)	(4.75)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)
Egypt	7702	292	9.4	−0.65	−0.36	−0.1	−0.9	−0.2	−0.31	−158.55**
	(46487)	(217)	(5.03)	(0.47)	(0.47)	(0.47)	(0.46)	(0.46)	(0.47)
Belgium	1451	100	17.61	−0.3	−0.51	−0.28	−0.25	0.02	0.04	−103.37***
	(244)	(3)	(2.9)	(0.27)	(0.27)	(0.27)	(0.27)	(0.27)	(0.27)
Belarus	1202	143	44.67	−0.15	0.57	0.43	0.42	0.61	0.56	−152.79***
	(2332)	(3)	(4.75)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.44)
Argentina	109	59	−4.04	−1.27	−0.26	−0.96	−0.39	−1.39	−0.41	−192.26***
	(466)	(54)	(7.05)	(0.66)	(0.66)	(0.66)	(0.65)	(0.65)	(0.66)
Ecuador	862	150	14.54	−0.2	−0.16	0.01	−0.03	−0.4	0.12	−136.54*
	(1344)	(11)	(4.04)	(0.38)	(0.38)	(0.38)	(0.37)	(0.37)	(0.38)
Indonesia	1184	193	9.51	−0.15	−0.27	−0.07	−0.32	−0.02	0	−66.76***
	(2348)	(24)	(2.01)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.19)
Netherlands	1098	80	6.45	0	−0.57	−0.2	−0.16	0.11	0.08	−87.18***
	(1030)	(11)	(2.46)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)
UAE	1717	139	38.15	−0.57	0	−0.1	−0.42	−0.18	−1.01	−149.51***
	(3063)	(3)	(4.59)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.43)	(0.42)	(0.42)	(0.43)

This table uses the latest K $=$ 100 days’ data (until 2020-06-26) to fit the Gamma model.

Standard errors are in parentheses below the estimates.

$\hat{\mu }$ is the estimated day of the peak, taking 2019-12-31 as day 0.

The number of * at the last column denotes the relative goodness of fit based on log likelihood, where *** indicates the model of the best fit among others.