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. 2020 Sep 8;220(1):130–157. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.049

Table 3.

One Step Ahead Prediction Loss of Cases.

Minimum Average Loss
Average Loss of K = 100
Name 1a 1b 1c 1a 1b 1c
USA 6463 9480 5186 16247 14250 16755
Brazil 3263 2395 2753 6139 5737 4130
Russia 103 845 120 2440 2757 1499
India 2761 1004 2612 5348 4902 4529
UK 109 93 109 292 258 267
Peru 1553 1800 1583 1677 2968 1885
Chile 1115 949 1100 3606 1143 3840
Italy 94 67 98 139 165 140
Iran 38 100 46 1102 1086 1014
Mexico 956 547 872 1448 1072 1050
France 207 202 211 207 304 213
Pakistan 706 1012 825 4907 3081 5554
Turkey 115 64 137 679 479 717
Germany 74 50 63 210 110 246
Saudi Arabia 77 95 86 302 745 594
South Africa 346 297 371 364 3837 397
Canada 32 21 27 64 65 44
Qatar 163 160 221 330 1110 613
Colombia 917 681 875 1248 1595 1194
Sweden 797 787 798 1310 1368 1281
Egypt 361 554 420 1256 767 1310
Belgium 86 75 88 91 95 90
Belarus 196 209 203 257 1132 443
Argentina 1099 1067 1108 1680 2023 1643
Indonesia 47 62 46 155 213 155
Netherlands 6 14 6 13 14 14
UAE 40 76 43 127 633 170

This table summarizes the average loss of one step prediction for new daily cases when L = 5. And K ranges from 14 to 100 days. The second column presents the minimum average loss of 5 days within that range. And the corresponding results of K = 100 are provided for comparisons.