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. 2021 Jan 25;4:126. doi: 10.1038/s42003-021-01677-2

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© The Author(s) 2021, corrected publication 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a Average daily percentage reduction in the onset risk in 347 Chinese cities in the lockdown scenario, compared with the non-lockdown scenario. b The onset risk under two scenarios in seven selected cities. The plotted values were computed from the predicted risk of COVID-19 symptom onset under the two scenarios resultant from the extended WKDE model, by using historical confirmed cases and inter-city human mobility data. Under the lockdown scenario, the outward human flows from Wuhan were regarded as not increasing the onset risk of other cities, due to the dramatic decrease in human mobility intensity, together with strict quarantine measures. Under the non-lockdown scenario, the human mobility intensity was estimated based on that of the corresponding time period in 2019 (see Methods section for details).