Table 4.
Goodness of fit (observed vs. predicted ischaemic stroke/TIA events) by number of risk points according to ordinal logistic model and Poisson, scaled by deviance
| Score points | Study population | Observed events | Predicted values | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n (%) | n (%) | Logistic | Poisson | |
| 0 | 707 (4.6) | 3 (0.4) | 7.0 (5.5–9.1) | 6.2 (5.0–7.6) |
| 1 | 1548 (10.0) | 16 (1.0) | 20.1 (16.3–24.7) | 19.0 (16.0–22.4) |
| 2 | 2008 (13.0) | 35 (1.7) | 34.0 (28.8–40.0) | 33.5 (29.3–38.2) |
| 3 | 2329 (15.1) | 59 (2.5) | 50.6 (44.7–57.4) | 51.5 (46.5–57.0) |
| 4 | 2625 (17.0) | 77 (2.9) | 73.7 (66.9–81.2) | 76.0 (70.3–82.2) |
| 5 | 2642 (17.1) | 98 (3.7) | 95.7 (87.5–104.7) | 98.1 (91.3–105.5) |
| 6 | 1881 (12.2) | 87 (4.6) | 87.4 (78.5–97.2) | 87.2 (80.0–95.2) |
| ≥7 | 1685 (10.9) | 94 (5.6) | 100.5 (87.5–115.3) | 97.5 (87.0–109.4) |
| AUC | 63.7 (61.4–66.1) | |||
| Wald χ 2 (global null hypothesis: β = 0) | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||
| Lack of fit/test of the model form | 0.4711 | 0.7062 | ||
| Akaike information criterion | 53.9 | 52.0 | ||
AUC, area under the curve.