Table 1.
Estimated basic reproductive numbers of SARS-CoV-2
| Scenario | Parameter | Deterministic approach | MLE for ODE SEIR model* | Bayesian MCMC for ODE SEIR model* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Estimate (95% CI) | Estimate (95% CrI) | ||
| Up to 2020-02-13 | Basic reproductive number (R0) | 5.70 | 5.39 (5.29, 5.50) | 5.67 (4.09, 8.02) |
| Transmission coefficient (β) | 0.82 | 0.77 (0.76, 0.79) | 0.79 (0.62, 1.02) | |
| Up to 2020-02-16 | Basic reproductive number (R0) | 5.27 | 5.38 (5.29, 5.47) | 5.66 (4.16, 7.82) |
| Transmission coefficient (β) | 0.75 | 0.77 (0.76, 0.78) | 0.78 (0.63,0.98) | |
| Up to 2020-02-19 | Basic reproductive number (R0) | 5.27 | 5.43 (5.43, 5.43) | 5.70 (4.23, 7.79) |
| Transmission coefficient (β) | 0.75 | 0.78 (0.78, 0.78) | 0.79 (0.64, 0.97) |
*MLE maximum likelihood estimate; MCMC Markov Chain Monte Carlo, SEIR model Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery model; CI confidence interval; CrI credible interval