Table 3.
Epidemiological and economic consequences of simulated FMD outbreak in two Austrian regions under different control strategies.
| Scenarioa | Infected farms | Depopulated farms | Depopulated animals | Last day of culling | Epidemic control durationb | Vaccinated herds | Direct cost (in Mio. €) | Indirect cost (in Mio. €) | Total cost (in Mio. €) | Total cost difference to SO strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region “North” | ||||||||||
| SO | 81 (1–427) | 81 (1–427) | 4,924 (154–28,745) | 80 (29–189) | 76 (23–271) | – | 24 (1–95) | 519 (217–1,194) | 543 (219–1,289) | |
| SODC | 73 (2–380) | 76 (3–385) | 4,683 (102–27,262) | 77 (28–190) | 73 (22–244) | – | 23 (1–87) | 513 (215–1,186) | 536 (216–1,273) | −1% |
| SORC1 | 40 (3–174) | 284 (13–386) | 15,422 (503–63,344) | 57 (31–101) | 150 (25–344) | – | 26 (2–102) | 433 (219–751) | 460 (221–853) | −15%c |
| SOSV1 | 66 (3–304) | 66 (3–304) | 4,136 (102–22,380) | 69 (29–140) | 63 (23–197) | 169 (3–760)d | 20 (1–70) | 461 (217–874) | 481 (218–944) | −11%c |
| SOPV1 | 68 (3–323) | 68 (3–323) | 4,126 (103–22,341) | 68 (28–139) | 63 (22–204) | 171 (3–792) | 20 (1–73) | 561 (311–970) | 581 (312–1,043) | +7% |
| Region “West” | ||||||||||
| SO | 15 (1–111) | 15 (1–111) | 843 (1–7,357) | 45 (23–99) | 39 (17–96) | – | 6 (1–33) | 263 (208–392) | 269 (209–426) | |
| SODC | 12 (1–79) | 18 (1–145) | 932 (1–9,486) | 44 (23–93) | 38 (17–108) | – | 6 (1–33) | 265 (208–394) | 271 (209–424) | +1% |
| SORC1 | 12 (1–60) | 110 (1–557) | 4,051 (55–30,413) | 42 (23–72) | 62 (17–270) | – | 8 (1–43) | 262 (208–351) | 270 (209–394) | 0% |
| SOSV1 | 14 (1–98) | 14 (1–98) | 797 (10–6,267) | 45 (23–82) | 39 (17–78) | 62 (0–339)d | 6 (1–28) | 263 (208–352) | 269 (209–380) | 0% |
| SOPV1 | 14 (1–98) | 14 (1–98) | 762 (1–6,671) | 44 (23–89) | 38 (17–75) | 63 (0–354) | 6 (1–30) | 357 (304–461) | 362 (305–490) | +35% |
Epidemics per region were started in the same 1,000 dairy cattle herds for each control strategy and the model results are presented as median (5th and 95th percentiles).
The different control measures are: SO, stamping out of all infected herds (reference scenario); SODC, pre-emptive depopulation of dangerous contact herds; SORC1, pre-emptive depopulation of all susceptible herds within 1-km radius around infected herds; SOSV1, suppressive vaccination of all susceptible herds with 1-km radius around infected herds; SOPV1, protective vaccination of all susceptible herds with 1-km radius around infected herds. SODC, SORC1, SOSV1, and SOPV1 are the other additional control measures take into account in the model.
Epidemic control duration is calculated from the detection of the first infected herd (day 21) to the day of lifting of the last restricted zone.
Control strategy which compared to reference scenario resulted in significant decrease (p < 0.05) in the number of infected herds, control duration and total cost.
Suppressive vaccinated animals will be subject of slaughter once the epidemic is controlled and time and resources permit.