Table 4.
Sensitivity analysis on resources for surveillance and cleaning and disinfection.
| Stamping out of all infected herds, reference scenario (SO) | Pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds (SORC1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference (surveillance: 160 herds/day; disinfection: 14 herds/week)a | Surveillance +25%b (surveillance: 200 herds/day; disinfection: 14 herds/week)a | Surveillance +50%b (surveillance: 240 herds/day; disinfection: 14 herds/week)a | Depopulation (1 km radius) (surveillance: 160 herds/day; disinfection: 14 herds/week)a | Cleaning and disinfection +25%c (surveillance: 160 herds/day; disinfection: 18 herds/week)a | Cleaning and disinfection +50%c (surveillance: 160 herds/day; disinfection: 23 herds/week)a | |
| Region “North” | ||||||
| Number of infected farms | 81 (1–427) | 72 (3–351) | 60 (2–316) | 40 (3–174) | 43 (2–160)e | 44 (3–173)e |
| Epidemic control duration (days) | 76 (23–271) | 67 (22–226) | 59 (21–204) | 150 (23–344) | 126 (24–344) | 104 (25–344) |
| Cost of control (in Mio. €) | 24 (1–95) | 24 (1–86)d | 23 (1–84)d | 26 (2–102) | 27 (1–93)e | 27 (2–96)e |
| Region “West” | ||||||
| Number of infected farms | 15 (1–111) | 15 (1–116)d | 14 (1–110)d | 12 (1–60) | 13 (1–66) | 11 (1–64)e |
| Epidemic control duration (days) | 39 (17–96) | 38 (17–105)d | 36 (17–94)d | 62 (17–270) | 52 (17–214) | 41 (17–165) |
| Cost of control (in Mio. €) | 6 (1–33) | 7 (1–37)d | 6 (1–38)d | 8 (1–43) | 9 (1–44)e | 8 (1–43)e |
Simulations for sensitivity analysis were run with the reference scenario (to compare the influence of varying the surveillance capacity) and depopulation control strategy (to compare the changes in cleaning and disinfection resources). In both regions, epidemics were initiated in the same 1,000 randomly chosen herds as in previous simulations and the results are presented as median (5th and 95th percentiles).
The presented capacities of control activities refer to dairy cattle herds, differences in the capacities in other herd types were considered in the calculation.
The reference number of maximum surveillance visits per day was increased by 25 and 50%, respectively in the sensitivity analysis, all other parameters remained unchanged.
The reference number of maximum farms which can be cleaned and disinfected per week was increased by 25 and 50%, respectively in the sensitivity analysis, all other parameters remained unchanged.
Results were not sensitive to changes in resources for surveillance compared to reference scenario.
Results were not sensitive to changes in resources for cleaning and disinfection compared to depopulation control scenario.