Confidence about no circulation in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of the detected-event free period assuming different estimates of ES, with perfect AFP surveillance without ES, and lines provided to indicate 95% and 99% for reference.
Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; DEFP, detected-event-free period; ES, environmental surveillance; GS, general population sites distribution; IP, isolation-rate based prevalence; NS, national sites distribution; PP, proportional prevalence; SS, site-specific; SW, system-wide; US, under-vaccinated subpopulation sites distribution