Table 5.
Selection of Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting cases of Dengue outbreaks in Gangetic West Bengal
| SI No | Model Description | Stationary R Squared | Normalized BIC | MAPE | Ljung-Box Test | Predicted Cases | Observed Cases | Difference | Error Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | (1,0.0)( 1.0,0)12 | 0.228 | 12.964 | 304.230 | 0.633 | 1314.3 | 971 | 343.3 | -35.36% |
| B | (2,0,0)(1,0,0)12 | 0.257 | 12.979 | 269.047 | 0.833 | 1314.6 | 971 | 343.6 | -37.50% |
| C | (2,0,1)(1,0,1)12 | 0.277 | 13.056 | 251.263 | 0.750 | 1675.9 | 971 | 704.9 | -72.59% |
| D | (2,0,0)(1,0,1)12 | 0.276 | 13.005 | 241.446 | 0.807 | 1688.1 | 971 | 717.1 | -73.85% |
| E | (1,0,0)(1,0,1)12 | 0.257 | 12.978 | 297.254 | 0.619 | 1711.2 | 971 | 740.2 | -76.23% |
| F | (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 | 0.564 | 13.136 | 125.942 | 0.712 | 2810.7 | 971 | 1839.7 | Not calculated |
| G | (1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 | 0.563 | 13.139 | 137.056 | 0.639 | 2828.9 | 971 | 1857.9 | Not calculated |
| H | (2,1,2)(0,1,1)12 | 0.562 | 13.201 | 138.544 | 0.529 | 2838.3 | 971 | 1867.9 | Not calculated |
| I | (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 | 0.533 | 13.088 | 122.680 | 0.214 | 2867 | 971 | 1896 | Not calculated |
| J | (2,1,2)(1,1.0)12 | 0.525 | 13.283 | 144.693 | 0.226 | 3327.4 | 971 | 2356.4 | Not calculated |
| K | (1,1,2)(1,1,0)12 | 0.525 | 13.222 | 124.584 | 0.308 | 3334.5 | 971 | 2363.5 | Not calculated |