Table 7.
Validation of selected SARIMA model
| Observed number of Dengue cases in outbreaks of 2019 in Gangetic West Bengal and the respective out-of-sample predicted values obtained from the SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 model | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year: 2019 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total |
| Observed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 971 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 971 |
| Predicted | 106.6 | 139.3 | 149.3 | 152.4 | 153.3 | 153.6 | 367.5 | 1314.3 | 311.0 | 153.7 | 153.7 | 153.7 | 1314.3 |
| UCl | 1317.2 | 1405.5 | 1420.6 | 1424.2 | 1425.2 | 1425.5 | 1639.3 | 2586.1 | 1582.9 | 1425.6 | 1425.6 | 1425.6 | |
| LCL | -1104.0 | -1126.9 | -1122.0 | -1119.4 | -1118.5 | -1118.2 | -904.4 | 42.5 | -960.8 | -1118.1 | -1118.8 | -1118.1 | |
| Significance | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | Significant | NS | NS | NS | NS | |
Predicted values having both their Upper Critical Limit (UCL) & Lower Critical Limit (LCL) on either side of zero are significant (August 2019 value). UCL & LCL values (remaining months) on both sides of zero are treated as non-significant (NS).