Table 3. Dengue virus predicted infection prevalence based on presence of pre-symptomatic period and/or disease-driven mobility reductions, presented as mean ± 2SEM.
Scenarios* | Percent of Simulations Where Outbreak Occurred† | Maximum Percent Infection Prevalence | Days Until Maximum Prevalence | Days Until Epidemic End |
---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline Scenario | 39.5% | 19.0 ± 0.2% | 113.0 ± 2.9 | 253.2 ± 6.0 |
+ Pre-symptomatic | 53.5% | 19.6 ± 0.1% | 112.9 ± 2.1 | 259.1 ± 4.9 |
+ Mobility Changes | 55.0% | 13.8 ± 0.1% | 122.9 ± 2.7 | 265.4 ± 4.9 |
+ Mobility Changes, Pre-symptomatic | 76.0% | 20.3 ± 0.1% | 111.1 ± 1.8 | 250.3 ± 4.0 |
*Infection prevalence data were analyzed from four scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario with no mobility changes and no pre-symptomatic period, and alternate models that included (2) no mobility change and pre-symptomatic period included, (3) mobility change and no pre-symptomatic period, and (4) mobility change and pre-symptomatic period included. For each scenario, the average time point was listed for when infection prevalence reached its maximum and reached 0% at the end of epidemic. The percent of the population infected during maximum infection prevalence was also listed, as well as the number of simulations where an outbreak occurred. Time steps values were converted to days (1 time step = 3 days).
† Given as a percent out of 200 possible simulations.